In this edition:
Bolsonaro faces domestic and international risks from Brazil’s Amazon fires.
Nicaragua polling shows citizens dislike Ortega but can’t name an alternative
Venezuela Update: Backchannel Talks
Bolsonaro faces domestic and international risks from Brazil’s Amazon fires
This week, the Amazon is burning only slightly slower than Greenland is melting. A large number of fires across the Brazilian section of the rainforest (>80% higher than last year) has led to a giant ash cloud that has turned the skies dark in Sao Paulo.
Having previously embraced his anti-environmental ideology, Bolsonaro’s first year in office has seen his administration favor farmers and agribusiness, including several radical ideas that allow farmers and ranchers to burn down or cut down large areas of rainforest. Various controlled and uncontrolled burns occur every year, but there is good reason to believe that this year’s larger burn is inspired and incentivized by the president and his policies.
Domestically, polling shows the vast majority of Brazilians - including a majority of Bolsonaro supporters - want better protections for the environment in addition to a reduction in deforestation.
In recent weeks, it appears Bolsonaro recognizes the danger that comes from both domestic and international public opinion. Unfortunately, his primary instinct is to lie or hide the truth, entailing the firing the head of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) for disagreements over deforestation data. This firing has led to increased public distrust in government statements about weather and climate conditions in the country.
Bolsonaro faces intense international criticism over his environmental record. Germany and Norway cut funding to Amazonian states and one of Germany’s most important newspapers called for sanctions against Brazil over its mismanagement of the Amazon. A lead article and editorial in the Economist three weeks ago also criticized Bolsonaro for his failed environmental policies. Some of these criticisms play into Bolsonaro’s nationalist instincts (Brazilians don’t want to be sanctioned), but they point to a key challenge the Brazilian president faces.
The current media coverage of the Amazon places environmental issues at the front of the debate over ratifying the EU-Mercosur deal and expanding other trade opportunities for Brazil. Europeans understand that Bolsonaro may be influenced by market forces and a desire for a better economy, even if he’ll never be an environmentalist. Alternatively, those countries and politicians in Europe looking to sink the deal with Mercosur for protectionist reasons can hide behind environmental claims.
If Europe cuts back on aid and trade, it could push Bolsonaro closer to Asia. China certainly cares more about its supplies of raw materials than the condition of the environment in Brazil. The Bolsonaro administration is negotiating a $500 million loan from the BRICS New Development Bank, something Chinese media portrays as replacing the lost money from Germany and Norway.
Nicaragua polling shows citizens dislike Ortega but can’t name an alternative
A poll by Borge & Asociados conducted in late July shows a large portion of the Nicaraguan public desires opposition unity. The same polls also shows the biggest challenge for Nicaragua’s opposition is that the public does not see a clear alternative to the current Ortega administration.
51% say they have no political party while 44% identify with the FSLN.
It’s worth noting that some percentage of self-identified Sandinistas may not support Ortega and that number is not clear from the poll.
Only 4.5% identified with any opposition political party.
45% of the public wants the opposition to unify.
If new elections were held, 59% of the public either doesn’t know who they would vote for or would refuse to vote.
Only 36% say they would support Ortega.
Fewer than 6% of voters named a specific alternative to Ortega.
50% of voters identified the broken political system and lack of human rights and democracy as the country’s leading problems. That contrasts with most other countries, where citizen security and the economy lead the issues of concern, usually followed by corruption.
Only 18% of the public believes the economy is good while over 40% believe it is doing poorly.
Venezuela Update: Backchannel Talks
Someone within the Trump administration leaked to the media that the NSC has had conversations directly with Diosdado Cabello. Caught off guard, Nicolas Maduro was forced to announce that he had authorized various backchannel conversations with the US. It was not clear whether Maduro was telling the truth or simply attempting to avoid the weak image of a leader who doesn’t know which of his allies is negotiating behind his back.
Diosdado has gained influence in recent months as Maduro has reasons to reduce his trust in people like Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and Supreme Court head Moreno. Diosdado’s influence includes a relative at the top of the Army and his inner circle running part of SEBIN. If the goal is to negotiate with the stakeholders propping up Maduro, Diosdado is definitely high on the list.
It’s understandable that he would want to negotiate to protect himself in case Maduro loses power. Diosdado has been involved in corruption, drug trafficking and repression for well over a decade. He is sanctioned by multiple governments around the globe and likely faces a US indictment for drug trafficking and an ICC indictment for human rights abuses in his future. Analysts who have looked at his corruption network (and that of his brother, Jose David) suggest he likely has hundreds of millions of dollars in assets that have yet to be seized.
However, according to the various articles (AP, WSJ) that have described the backroom talks with the US, Diosdado has yet to offer anything that would merit giving him any sort of post-Maduro protection. He wants it all: the ability to maintain his own political power, the ending of sanctions, the normalization of international relations. He has yet to suggest that Maduro’s resignation or a free and fair internationally monitored election are on the table. Multiple sources in Venezuela indicate that Diosdado continues to be both 1) heavily against the Norway negotiations, and 2) one of the key figures encouraging greater repression of the opposition.
Diosdado may be speaking with the Trump administration, but until he offers something of value, it’s not a negotiation.
Corruption Corner
Brazil - Reuters reports Philips knew of a bribery scheme involving the sales of medical devices in 2010, years before it became public and was prosecuted in Brazil. Someone working for a Philips subsidiary recognized that the company had received contracts via a Brazilian intermediary that had overbid and did not have a business office. Instead of acting, the Dutch company allegedly fired the whistleblower who reported the potential corruption.
Mexico - Mexican prosecutors will bring additional corruption charges against the former head of Pemex. Group Fertinal allegedly paid Lozoya US$2.8 million in bribes when Pemex purchased the bankrupt fertilizer company in 2015.
Honduras - Former first lady Rosa Elena Bonilla de Lobo convicted of fraud and embezzlement. During her husband’s administration (2010-2014), she worked with other government officials to steal hundreds of thousands of dollars from social programs and route them into businesses that appeared to be money laundering fronts. This was the first major conviction for MACCIH, the OAS-backed anti-corruption organization in the country, and comes at a critical time as the organization’s mandate is being reviewed.
Reading List
Miami Herald - Haiti adrift as president faces impeachment hearing, prime minister in Twitter scandal
Americas Quarterly - Making Pemex Great Again?
Mexicanos Contra la Corrupción y la Impunidad - El fiscal que hizo de Nayarit un infierno
Confidencial - La alianza de Ortega con la cúpula militar
The Atlantic - The Dark Side of the Investigation Meant to Clean Up Brazil
CNN - Nicolas Maduro and Venezuela’s bloody gold
Reuters - Imported repression: How Cuba taught Venezuela to quash military dissent
NYTimes - Women Are Fleeing Death at Home. The U.S. Wants to Keep Them Out.
Bloomberg - Two Communist Lawmakers Are Suddenly Setting the Agenda in Chile
Associated Press - US aims to double financing in Latin America to $12 billion
Thanks for Reading!
Moving to a new city means spending several weeks fighting the bureaucracy monster. Up next week will be a certain regional telecom giant that you all know and love who will hopefully grace me with regular internet access here in Bogota.