Latin America Risk Report - 21 May 2020

Anti-quarantine protests reshaping politics

May 21, 2020

In this edition:

Region - Anti-quarantine protests reshaping politics
El Salvador - The power grab continues

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Region - Anti-quarantine protests reshaping politics

From an economic perspective, the government-imposed lockdowns are most harmful to the poor, the marginalized, the refugees and those that work in informal economic sectors. That fact underlies a strain of populism that is growing against governments that have enacted coronavirus-related restrictions.

This week’s protests in Santiago, Chile, were emblematic of the small but growing movement of protests in poor urban neighborhoods across Latin America. Citizens banged pots and pans and took to the streets. Soldiers and police used tear gas to quash the protests. Similar protests, though smaller in scale, have been seen in the past two weeks in Honduras, Colombia, Argentina and Bolivia. Families have a hard time feeding their children and face pressure to pay rent and other bills while their jobs are shut down. Government promised aid has been slow to arrive and less than needed.

Within the poor communities, many of the protesters demand access to food and relief from rent. Those demands are separate but related to their demands for opportunities to work. After all, those who work in the informal sector or in the lowest paying professions are often in jobs that would be at high risk of catching the virus. However, some have demanded the right to work because they don’t believe the government promises for aid.

Hypothetical worst case scenarios vs the reality of the moment

Ending quarantines too early to “reopen the economy” would likely harm societies and economies. Most public health professionals agree that quarantine policies are saving lives and preventing a collapse of health care systems. Many economists believe that protecting public health is preventing a potentially larger economic collapse than the one the world is experiencing. Having tens of thousands of extra deaths and people living in fear of their neighbors and coworkers spreading a virus does not make for strong economic growth and poverty reduction.

But it’s tough to make hypothetical “this could be much worse” lines of argument to people who are having a difficult time paying their bills and putting food on the table today due to the fact their personal economic situation has been immediately impacted by the quarantines. A mixture of opportunistic politicians as well as well-meaning but wrong social movement leaders are jumping in to fill the gap.

Creating the conditions for a potential left-right populist alliance

We tend to think of the groups hardest hit by the quarantine as leaning “left” and it’s true most of those groups historically have voted for leftist candidates and been the grassroots organizers for leftist political movements.

These protests by the poor aren’t the same as the anti-lockdown protests demanding a reopening of the economy in some countries, including those that support President Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. Many of the anti-lockdown protests supported by the right side of the political spectrum are focused on the reopening of businesses and the rights of individuals to not have their lives dictated by the government. The protests in poor urban areas are more concerned about the ability to provide for families, with work being a secondary factor.

The protests, although driven by different ideologies and economic classes, have the potential to unite the right and left sides of the political spectrum in a way that supports populist politicians.

Mexico provides an example to the contrary

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is one of the populist presidents who has pushed the line that the lockdowns harm the poor the most. Mexico’s poor are his base of supporters and AMLO is often well tied in to their concerns. So if the above points were true, we’d see pro-government movements by the poor to end coronavirus restrictions.

Instead, the past week has seen a backlash against AMLO’s attempts to reopen the economy by many poor and rural communities. Lopez Obrador offered hundreds of municipalities the opportunity to reopen if they did not have a current outbreak of the virus. Politicians from the PRI and PAN including some municipal and state government leaders have resisted AMLO’s attempts to reopen the economy and have gotten support from citizens who likely supported the president in the last election. Mexican citizens see the hospitals overflowing in large urban areas and do not want to be pushed into reopening if it will harm their families.

This protest movement builds off 2019

The protests in late 2019 had many causes, but the biggest was that the political elite around the region were not meeting citizens’ expectations in terms of improving the lives of everyone. This new round of anti-quarantine protests plays into the anti-incumbent moment.

As I wrote above, the protests have the potential to unite populist movements on the right and left in common cause, even if only briefly, over the criticisms of government responses to coronavirus.

Support and opposition for quarantine measures also has the potential to break apart political coalitions on the right and left where citizens who form the base of support oppose the policies of the political elites in their movements.

Those two factors - populist movements uniting and traditional left-right fracturing - could reshape political parties in the coming years.

A more optimistic view is that the pressures from these protests will push politicians in power to do more to respond to the basic needs of citizens. There is something positive about politicians being pressured by citizens to compete for votes by making sure people can eat and have access to housing and healthcare. The region needs creative solutions that promote economic growth and equity beyond the simple positions of lockdown or reopen.

El Salvador - The power grab continues

President Nayib Bukele continues to work to undermine the other institutions of government that should serve as constitutional checks on the power of an overreaching president. This past week, the president issued an unconstitutional emergency decree related to coronavirus restrictions after the legislature refused to extend the previous regulations. Facing a Supreme Court decision that would limit his decree, Bukele threatened to cut off the salaries of legislators and judges.

The details of this week’s back and forth battle blur into what has been a multi-month battle between Bukele and the legislative branch that began before the Covid-19 outbreak. He now claims the health emergency as the reason for his power grab, but his intentions were clear before the virus. The president is using his social media influence (and some manipulation) to push stories about distribution of food and support from healthcare providers to boost his position among the public.

Bukele has agreed with the business community to an eventual and gradual reopening of the economy, but made clear that he believes he has the authority to halt any reopening effort at any time.

The president remains more popular than other political elites in the country. However, there are signs that popularity may be dropping. Cacerolazos in various wealth and poor neighborhoods in San Salvador over the past week signal discontent with the government’s actions. Recent polling is limited, but the most likely explanation is that people are angry at Bukele’s overreach on quarantine enforcement. Salvadorans are likely quite angry at the fact they may be thrown into detention centers without due process if the government believes they have broken the rules. Additionally, as with many other countries throughout the region, the poor in El Salvador are having a difficult time providing for their families when they can’t work.

In spite of those protests, it’s quite likely that El Salvador’s population matches much of the rest of the region in its general support for government measures to limit public gatherings. People are concerned about being infected and don’t want a full return to work. They also likely support Bukele’s harsh crackdown on gangs. Public opinion is likely more nuanced than a simple support/oppose the president on these issues.

I last covered El Salvador’s political clash in late April. I also recommend InSight Crime’s recent report: Coronavirus May Be Providing Cover for Police Abuses in El Salvador.

Corruption Corner

Bolivia - Authorities detained Minister of Health Marcelo Navajas over allegations that he purchased overpriced ventilators from Spain.

Mexico - The war of corruption allegations continues in the country.

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ordered an investigation into former President Peña Nieto and government contracts awarded to Baxter International, a company that had previous ties to Peña Nieto’s family.

Today, El Universal reports that the Lopez Obrador government has awarded contracts to Corporativo Kosmos in spite of numerous previous corruption allegations including some by the Financial Intelligence Unit that have led to company bank accounts being frozen.