Latin America Risk Report - 21 March 2019
Nicaragua dialogue back on as political prisoners should be freed soon
In this edition
Nicaragua dialogue back on again after weekend of repression
Venezuela update
AMLO commits to one term
Paying subscribers this week received a preview of Panama’s upcoming election on 5 May.
Nicaragua dialogue back on again after weekend of repression
Numerous activists were arrested last weekend amid a renewed crackdown by Daniel Ortega against his political opponents. The arrests have led to additional international condemnation and calls for more protests.
Late last night, the Ortega government again appeared to shift course. Ortega promised to release 760 political prisoners in the next 90 days. The formal declaration read to the media by the Civic Alliance also suggests the negotiation process will resume with the Catholic Church, OAS and Red Cross invited to monitor the prisoner release and dialogue effort.
As reported in this newsletter two weeks ago, the issues of political prisoners and international observers were key initial holdups for the dialogue process. Ortega had been adamantly against the inclusion of the OAS in the dialogue process. A combination of diplomatic pressure and a swiftly collapsing economic situation appear to have forced the regime to change course.
There is a portion of the agreement that calls on the US and EU to rescind sanctions once prisoners are released, giving Ortega incentive to comply but also creating a potential diplomatic challenge in the near future. Ortega will be monitoring the US and EU reactions to the dialogue to ensure that potential sanctions relief is on the way. Foreign countries will attempt to make sure, however, that Ortega is committed to political transition before sanctions relief is granted.
The concessions and resumption of dialogue are good news, but Ortega’s lurching back and forth between serious repression and willingness to negotiate is concerning. First, it suggests an internal split within Ortega’s inner circle about the correct strategy. Something about the domestic or international reaction to this past weekend’s repression made people inside the Ortega government nervous and pushed them to resume dialogue. Second, activists must fear another shift back to repression could come just as quickly. It would not be surprising if Ortega cancelled the prisoner release or began repressing and detaining protest leaders yet again in the coming weeks.
Venezuela update
Guaido continues to draw sizable crowds from around the country including in poor areas that previously supported Chavista candidates. While analysts have expressed concern that Guaido could lose momentum and organization in a drawn out fight, that has not yet occurred.
Over 1,000 Venezuelan soldiers have now crossed the border with Colombia and declared their allegiance to Guaido. This total includes the first active duty Army general. The National Assembly passed a bill regarding the military and its structure, but key amnesty provisions remain stalled.
Maduro announced a likely cabinet shuffle in the near future. Some points to watch:
Any change at Minister of Defense would be very significant given the amount of time Padrino Lopez has been in the position and his powerful influence among the military.
A change at Vice President would also be notable as that person would inherit the de facto presidency under Maduro’s interpretation of the constitution if Maduro were to resign or flee the country.
Given all the challenges of the energy sector and electrical system, changes at the positions in charge of those areas are expected. In fact, if Maduro fails to change his energy policy team, it would be a signal of weakness in that he can’t find anyone he trusts who is willing to take the job.
While most of the ministries matter very little in terms of actual policy, they matter greatly in terms of Maduro’s attempts to balance the coalition keeping him in power.
Early Thursday morning SEBIN detained Roberto Marrero, Juan Guaido’s chief of staff. The detention is certain to receive widespread international condemnation. It appears Maduro is using repression to threaten the Guaido team as a way to divide them and punish them for their efforts to block and obtain control of Venezuela’s international assets.
Mexico: AMLO commits to one term
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador continues to push for a constitutional change that would make public consultations easier and allow for a recall election halfway through his term. AMLO’s critics claim, without providing many details, that the constitutional referendum is a ploy for him to extend his term in office beyond six years. Given the strong historical anti-reelection sentiment in Mexico, that seems unlikely and AMLO committed in writing this week to only serving six years.
More concerning is that AMLO will time his recall referendum with the legislative and gubernatorial elections taking place in 2021. AMLO is gambling that having a popular president’s name on the ballot could drive MORENA party turnout and help him consolidate control over the political system nationally and in a number of important states.
Corruption Corner
Venezuela - A Reuters investigation revealed aspects of Rosneft’s investments in Venezuela that have cost the Russian firm significant money. The article builds on the assumption that the investments must have political motivations given how much money they are losing.
Region - The Inter-American Dialogue held an event highlighting a large investigative journalism effort into corruption in Venezuela’s regional oil diplomacy. The webcast is available here.
Guatemala - Thelma Aldana, the former attorney general and current frontrunner in this year’s presidential election, was charged with embezzlement and ordered arrested. The charges appear to be a politicized effort by the current administration to stop her from winning the presidency. As attorney general, Aldana strongly supported the efforts of the UN-backed CICIG to investigate corruption.
Reading List
Wilson Center - Report | Nicaraguan Tragedy: From Consensus to Coercion
CSIS - Cross-Border Trade and Corruption along the Haiti-Dominican Republic Border
WSJ - Maduro Loses Grip on Venezuela’s Poor, a Vital Source of His Power
Miami Herald - U.S. sanctions on Venezuela are affecting Caribbean nations’ ability to pay for oil
Reuters - Water is now gold for desperate Venezuelans
Bloomberg - AMLO Risks His Own Fall as He Tries to Pull Pemex Back From the Brink
Americas Quarterly - The Tropical Trump? If He's Lucky
Animal Politico - Usan Pegasus y sitios falsos de Animal Político y Proceso para espiar a la viuda de Javier Valdez
Forbes - How Acapulco Exemplifies Mexico's Ongoing Security Crisis
Thanks for reading
I’m traveling next week, but am still eager to receive emails from readers who send comments, questions and recommendations for what I should be writing.