In this edition
Honduras Protests Intensify
Venezuela Update
On Monday, I published an analysis of Guatemala’s first round of elections for subscribers. I dropped the paywall on that article on Tuesday so everyone can read it.
There is a potential recount in Guatemala, but that recount is unlikely to change the results. President Morales is angry because his FCN party was among the biggest losers in the election. The OAS insists the final election results were not significantly impacted by fraud, although some instances of violence and voter intimidation were reported.
Honduras Protests Intensify
Honduras protests worsened this week. Demonstrations that started with teachers and medical workers have expanded to a broad anti-Hernandez coalition that is increasing its actions in the run-up to the tenth anniversary of the June 2009 coup. There were widespread reports of looting, roadblocks and damage to businesses. Truckers and a small number of police officers joined in as a way of gaining leverage in negotiations over salaries and working conditions.
The police portion of the protests was clearly of the highest concern to the Hernandez government. The government can most likely survive protests by various social groups, but as I wrote in the newsletter two weeks ago, support from the security forces is critical to the government’s stability.
While these sorts of salary disputes between police and the government have happened before, having them occur as anti-government protests are rising makes the police protest intensely political. Late last night, the Hernandez government announced the police strike was over after a new deal was reached and all forces would return to work. The trucking strike was also resolved this week after swift negotiations with the government.
Hernandez has ordered additional federal police and military units to the streets in order to repress the protests. The demonstrations are quite likely to continue and potentially worsen next week with the tenth anniversary of the coup.
Venezuela update
Bachelet visit - Michelle Bachelet, the former president of Chile and head of the UN Human Rights Office, visited Venezuela. Bachelet met with Guaido and Maduro, the head of the Supreme Court, as well as several former political prisoners and family members of current prisoners. Maduro freed a small number political prisoners prior to the visit, but many remain unjustly detained. Bachelet’s visit should be followed by efforts for the UN to maintain personnel in the country to document human rights abuses.
Maduro’s Finances - The New York Times reported Russia is cutting back on its financial support for the Maduro regime, confirming and adding info to a previous WSJ report on the same subject. Bloomberg reported on how Rosneft used Russia’s leverage over Venezuela to obtain a deal to develop off-shore natural gas on a tax-free basis. Meanwhile the WSJ reported on gold from Venezuela that passed through Africa. Maduro sells the precious metal at discount prices in an attempt to continue funding his regime as oil money and international financial support have faded.
Colombia fund controversy - Guaido’s government faced accusations that funds intended for soldiers who defected and refugees in Colombia were diverted to several of his officials in the country. Guaido has responded to the controversy by ordering an investigation and requesting the assistance of Colombia to investigate and potentially prosecute any corruption. The Maduro regime has revelled in the controversy and attempted to refocus media attention on to it, with the ANC also opening up an investigation into the alleged corruption.
Recommended Reading - Frank Mora has a smart analysis on US policy options for Venezuela at the CFR website.
Corruption Corner
Colombia - Anti-corruption measures failed to get through the Colombian Congress in spite of a promise by President Duque to support the legislation after a referendum last year received about 12 million votes but narrowly missed the voter turnout cutoff. The final legislation that Congressional leaders killed would have sent corrupt public officials to prison instead of allowing house arrest or other partial freedom. Duque says he will attempt to push the anti-corruption measures again when the next session of Congress meets in July.
Mexico - The US government is reportedly investigating former President Peña Nieto for having accepted a bribe in relation to a Pemex contract.
Brazil, Mexico - Walmart paid a $282 million fine to the Justice Department and SEC as part of a settlement related to corruption at its foreign subsidiaries. Walmart paid government officials (often through fixers) in both Mexico and Brazil in order to obtain permits and pass inspections.
Central America - With the Bukele administration considering an anti-corruption commission for El Salvador, Chuck Call at AulaBlog looks at lessons from CICIG and MACCIH that can be applied to the new organization.
Reading list
Voice of San Diego - On the Ground in Honduras, in 7 Telling Photos
Business Insider - Mexico's cartels appear to be shaking up the cocaine trade
Bloomberg - Central America Encourages Migrants to Leave—And Then Rakes in U.S. Dollars
Tim Padgett, WLRN - Trump's Plan To Oust Maduro Is Faltering. Maybe Venezuelans Have A Better One.
Miami Herald - OAS tells Haiti opposition to back off — and tells president to start governing
Thanks for reading!
The boxes are packed and on their way to Colombia. I’m spending the next few weeks on the road, leaving Montreal next week and ending up in Bogota in mid-August. I intend to keep publishing these newsletters every week while I travel and appreciate everyone’s patience with the irregular schedule as to which day they land in your inbox.