Transitions: A new newsletter
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Top line: Presidential Transitions
The wave of elections is over in 2018, but the transitions are still ahead. Three major government transitions in the coming two months will reshape the region.
On 1 December, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will finally take the presidency after Mexico’s typically lengthy transition process used up much of the honeymoon and goodwill directed at the president-elect, who won a majority of the votes. Controversies over the Mexico City airport and the security strategy have left AMLO facing criticisms before he even gets to his first day in office. Still, the president-elect plows forward, with additional consultative referendums and big infrastructure projects planned.
On 1 January, Jair Bolsonaro will officially take over in Brazil. He has made big promises including pension reform and privatizations. However, Brazil’s typical political calendar, with the lame duck Congress in session until February and pauses for Carnival and Semana Santa, means little will get done in the opening months. The end of the controversial Temer government will leave some questions about future corruption charges for officials who will lose their immunity from prosecution. Temer has been fully cooperating with Bolsonaro during the transition, being as helpful as possible in the hopes he gets an ambassadorship and continued immunity.
On 10 January, Venezuela will be without a president. Nicolas Maduro’s first elected mandate ends on that date and multiple governments have declared that they do not recognize his reelection. Many within Venezuela’s opposition already view Maduro as illegitimate and have downplayed the importance of this date. The government acts as if the official transition to Maduro’s next elected term has already occurred. This means both Maduro and his political opponents underestimate the full diplomatic cost that Maduro will face when the world stops recognizing the de facto president as legally in power.
About that AMLO security strategy
Over the past week, criticisms of AMLO’s security plan continued to roll in from all sides. Human rights groups and key ideologues within AMLO’s base were heavily critical of the plan to form a new National Guard force, claiming it is a continuation of a militarized strategy to combat criminal groups. Pragmatic security thinkers were equally critical, questioning whether Lopez Obrador administration has fully thought through the the roles, leadership structures and financial requirements that the new National Guard units would require. Key questions remain about what happens to the current military, Federal Police and local law enforcement.
Adding to the challenge, Mexico’s Supreme Court overturned Peña Nieto’s security law, calling the law regulating the use of the military in domestic security operations unconstitutional. Lopez Obrador says his proposal is intended to fix the flaws in EPN’s plan. Critics contend that AMLO’s plan goes even further than the current administration's, meaning it will require a carefully constructed constitutional amendment to implement. While AMLO’s Morena party has proposed amending the constitution, it’s hard to do correctly without the details.
In the process, surprisingly little criticism was directed at AMLO’s plan to negotiate with criminal groups. Mexican commentators have not taken that part of the security strategy seriously, believing that it will be so politically difficult that the Lopez Obrador administration will almost certainly back down in the face of public opinion. AMLO has shown a tendency to back down when facing criticism, but we shouldn’t preemptively assume he’ll change his mind on this. Expect AMLO to take steps towards some sort of negotiation process during his first year, particularly if he faces setbacks on the National Guard plan.
Diosdado vs Petro
Diosdado Cabello accused Colombian Senator and former presidential candidate Gustavo Petro of asking Venezuela to support his political campaigns.
Over the past decade, it’s been common to see accusations and occasionally evidence that various leftwing politicians around the hemisphere are receiving covert support from Venezuela. Duque’s more extreme supporters regularly accused Petro of being backed by the government in Venezuela. What isn’t common is that Venezuela’s ruling inner circle is the one making those accusations in this case.
Diosdado was vague about the timing of Petro’s alleged request for support, at times suggesting he was referring to a time when Chavez was alive. The implication of his accusation, however, alluded to the possibility that the request for financial support was more recent, perhaps even this year’s presidential campaign.
Petro denied the allegation, saying the last time he spoke with Chavez was 2006.
Diosdado aimed his accusation at Petro as a criticism of the Senator’s duplicity, saying that Petro and other leftists aren’t being honest today when they criticize the Venezuelan ruling regime. But he’s playing a two-sided game with this criticism. Maduro is the least popular person in Colombia. Diosdado knows any allegations of previous links to Maduro will hit Petro’s popularity and political capital at home..
This may be a one-off event, but it could also be a wider warning to left-wing politicians across the hemisphere. As Venezuela’s opposition tries to organize an ideologically wide coalition to pressure Maduro, the Chavistas are reminding a number of politicians that they have dirt that can throw back at anyone who was a previous ally.
Corruption corner
Mexico. Attorneys for El Chapo Guzman, the leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, claim that witnesses will provide testimony showing that the Sinaloa Cartel paid millions of dollars in bribes to President Pena Nieto. The accusation appears to be part of a strategy to confuse the jury and create doubt that Guzman was actually the top cartel leader in Mexico. In the process, it plays to a number of highly-believed conspiracy theories within Mexico and creates pressure on EPN and his allies. Lopez Obrador fans have been clamouring for some sort of prosecution of the current president once he leaves office and these accusations, true or not, will keep that question front and center as the presidency changes hands.
Peru. Former President Alan Garcia requested asylum from Uruguay after accusations that he took bribes from the Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht. There is little doubt that corruption was rampant in recent Peruvian governments. However, as I noted after the arrest of Keiko Fujimori, President Vizcarra is benefiting as his most important political opponents are being taken down due to corruption allegations. With the Peruvian public demanding action on corruption, Vizcarra is both winning popular support and consolidating power over his opponents.
Venezuela. The US unsealed an indictment against Raul Gorrin, accusing him of bribing Venezuelan government officials and laundering money through US real estate. None of this is surprising to those who have followed Venezuelan corruption issues, but it does raise a question about additional big money cases that are still to break.
Reading List
Foreign Policy - U.S. Military Targets Growing Russian and Chinese Influence in Latin America
CNN - Five pitfalls facing Trump's NAFTA replacement
WSJ - Desperate Venezuelans Dig Up Paradise in Search of Gold
Times of Israel - Mossad said to thwart Hezbollah terror plot against Jewish targets in Argentina
Bloomberg - A Bullet to the Head Reignites Chile's Oldest Conflict