In this edition:
Panama: Cortizo’s lackluster first 100 days
Peru - High approval for Vizcarra and his dissolution of Congress
Bolivia - Final poll shows significant lead for Morales
Venezuela Elected to Human Rights Council
On Monday I sent an update on Ecuador’s protests to paying subscribers. I dropped the paywall on that article this morning so all readers can access it now. Click here to read it.
Subscribers this week also received comments on the massacre in Michoacan and AMLO’s weak response to recent CJNG violence.
Panama - Cortizo’s lackluster first 100 days
The government of Laurentino Cortizo hit 100 days last week and the reviews are negative. Sources who have interviewed Panamanian citizens find that the new president is perceived as ineffective and failing to complete his campaign promises. After running on an anti-corruption platform, he appears distant and uninvolved with managing the various corruption scandals in the country. There have been limited changes in economic policy or security strategy, even as the public views unemployment and crime as worsening in the country.
Cortizo already faced an uphill battle, winning only a third of the vote and barely beating his nearest rival after underperforming the polls. The public is angry at the whole political system and the recent LAPOP report suggests Panamanians are among those in the hemisphere with the least faith in their government and democracy.
The second hundred days could see greater activity as the legislature is debating the national budget and constitutional reforms. Cortizo is trying to increase spending and expand the deficit to finance various projects that will build infrastructure and provide jobs. He is doing so even as he blames the former administration for the budgetary problems the country currently faces. In terms of constitutional reforms, many members of Congress - including those from Cortizo’s own party - oppose the anti-corruption initiatives such as stripping the immunity of legislators and prohibitions on reelection.
Cortizo is banking on his spending initiatives to revitalize the economy and get the public behind his other reforms. However, he’s largely wasted the political capital most politicians have in their initial months and can’t even get his own party behind his agenda. The first 100 days suggest a difficult and unpopular term in office for Panama’s president going forward.
Peru - High approval for Vizcarra and his dissolution of Congress
A new poll by Ipsos Peru confirmed that President Martin Vizcarra’s popularity has risen significantly due to the popularity of his move to dissolve Congress. Vizcarra’s approval rating is 79%, up from 48% last month. Only 16% disapprove of the president, who has said he wants new early general elections in which he will not run. About 85% of the population supports the dissolution of Congress and holding new legislative elections while 76% say the move was constitutional. This suggests that at least 9% of Peruvians think the move was unconstitutional but they support it anyway.
The poll shows significant approval for Vizcarra’s new cabinet with his economy minister garnering the highest approval rating. Additionally, there is strong support for the military and police who backed Vizcarra during the constitutional crisis.
Ipsos also found that Salvador del Solar is the most popular politician at the moment, with 16% of the population saying they associate most with him. A poll by Datum indicates the former prime minister (and an ally of President Vizcarra who was forced out at the end of September), has 21% of the vote if he runs for president. That is higher than any other potential candidate, suggesting some strength. At the same time, the fact that the leading candidate has only 21% shows the leadership vacuum Peru faces in the near future.
Bolivia - Final poll shows significant lead for Morales
A new poll by Ipsos Bolivia has President Evo Morales with 40% while Carlos Mesa has 22%. These poll results suggest President Morales is quite close to winning in the first round, though other polls have shown Mesa to be closer. Unlike other polls, the Ipsos poll also shows Morales with a significant lead in a hypothetical second round. The president’s lead comes due to 60% support in rural areas, enough to cover the losses caused by his general unpopularity in urban regions of the country.
Venezuela Elected to Human Rights Council
Venezuela and Brazil were elected to the UN Human Rights Council. Costa Rica made a late attempt to contest Venezuela’s likely victory, but could not get enough of the international community to back it - 105 countries backed Venezuela vs 96 for Costa Rica.
The close election showed significant international opposition to Venezuela and highlighted the Maduro regime’s abuses of human rights. Unfortunately, the 105 votes in favor also demonstrate that Maduro still has allies and the international human rights system has serious flaws.
Corruption Corner
Nicaragua - La Prensa reported that Francisco Sarria Garcia, an FSLN representative to the Central American parliament, has been accused of using his diplomatic vehicle to transport hundreds of kilos of cocaine across the border into Honduras.
Mexico - Carlos Romero Deschamps resigned his post as the leader of the Pemex union. Long accused of corruption and linked to the PRI, President Lopez Obrador has been pressuring Romero Deschamps to leave his post. The news comes just a week after a Supreme Court justice was also pressured to resign due to corruption allegations pushed by AMLO. While few doubt the corruption allegations, they do raise questions about whether AMLO is politicizing the anti-corruption agenda to remove political opponents from their positions. Lopez Obrador hopes to have the Pemex union hold a ballot for its next leader, which could be an opportunity for Morena to gain control over a very important political machine in the country.
In related news, the WSJ covered secret recordings documenting significant corruption at Pemex under the previous administration.
Reading List
Roberta Jacobson, NYT - Marie Yovanovitch Fought Corruption, Then Lost Her Post
BBC - Por qué a la izquierda de América Latina le cuesta tanto el recambio de líderes
Reuters - Undercover entrepreneurs: fearful Mexican tech startups shun spotlight
El Pais - Andorra embarga 76,5 millones de euros al abogado de Peña Nieto y le investiga por blanqueo
Washington Post - How Evo Morales running again — and again — undermines Bolivia’s democracy
Washington Post - Socialism doesn’t work? An emerging middle class of Bolivians would beg to differ. (I liked the article even if I hated the click-bait headline)
WLRN - Don't Try To Understand Trump In Ukraine – Or Latin America. You Might Pull Something
IRI - Three Pivotal Presidential Elections in South America
Economist - If the Peronists win in Argentina, which Fernández will be in charge?
CSIS - Climate Change and Food Security: A Test of U.S. Leadership in a Fragile World
NYT - The China Connection: How One D.E.A. Agent Cracked a Global Fentanyl Ring
Reuters - The hunt for Asia’s El Chapo
Thanks for reading!
The big elections in Bolivia, Argentina and Uruguay are probably going to get individual newsletters analyzing their results in the coming weeks. I’m also working on a longer term look at corruption and organized crime in Mexico. Thanks for supporting this newsletter.