In this edition:
A blow to Colombia’s peace process
Venezuela update: Blackout
Paying subscribers this week received an analysis of AMLO’s security policies after 100 days in his administration.
A blow to Colombia’s peace process
Colombian President Duque objected to six items within the FARC peace accords and sent them back to Congress. The law, known as Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), has already been approved by Congress and the Constitutional Court, meaning Duque’s move may be unconstitutional. Duque claims that his six objections are based on careful analysis of details he would like to change. Duque’s opponents believe he is trying to sink the entire peace process through his objections.
The UN, which monitors the accords, has said that Duque’s objections to the law are harming the ability to process demobilized FARC combatants. The peace process also faces challenges from the murders of former FARC leaders and NGO leaders in rural communities. Victims’ rights groups claim that Duque is blocking the bill to protect specific war criminals, perhaps paramilitary leaders. The ICC has suggested that it may open investigations into criminals if the JEP is stalled or blocked.
The most important potential consequence of Duque’s move is that former FARC combatants will distrust the process and decide to rearm as common criminals or by joining one of the larger criminal groups in the country. The creation and growth of the various Bandas Criminales (BACRIM) following the AUC peace process in the mid-2000’s remains one of Colombia’s primary security challenges today. Even if the president has legitimate reasons for his detailed objections, the overall effect is that Duque threatens to repeat history and cause more armed criminal groups to form with his attempt to modify the JEP.
Venezuela update: Blackout
The ongoing political clash in Venezuela was disrupted by a significant blackout that left most of the country without electricity for days. As I wrote on my blog several days ago, the blackout impacts many more sectors than just electricity.
Even as parts of the country, particularly Caracas, are regaining power, the short term damage of the blackout is enormous and will impact the citizens of Venezuela for weeks to come. There are shortages of food, water and gasoline related to the blackout. Hospitals are slow to return to the state they were in two weeks ago (which was far from ideal). Financial systems are still down in many locations.
In terms of monitoring Maduro’s ability to maintain power, the blackout will have lingering effects in the months to come that further weaken him. Even if the nine working Guri turbines return to fully functioning today, Venezuela has lost nearly a week of oil production and exports due to lack of electricity and other infrastructure failures at oil fields and a major export terminal. That production will have a hard time restarting as the country runs low on diluent, with Reliance in India cancelling plans to sell it to Venezuela. Maduro was hoping to export one million barrels per day in March. The country would be lucky to hit 800,000 and that number could drop much further.
That loss of oil income is a financial hit that will strike in the months ahead. It adds to the case that time works against Maduro.
Corruption corner
Brazil - Two former police officers were arrested for the murderer of Marielle Franco. A photo emerged of President Bolsonaro meeting with one of the suspects. The other lived near the Bolsonaro family and had close connections with the president and his sons. This has raised further questions about Bolsonaro’s ties to violent paramilitary groups.
Guatemala - The Guatemalan Congress delayed a vote on providing amnesty for war crimes, a move that would freed 30 former military officers and combatants who have been convicted for their actions in the 1980’s. This vote is directly related to the influence of former military leaders who financed and organized the campaign of President Jimmy Morales and his political supporters in Congress. Many of the same individuals trying to push this amnesty bill are also trying to remove the UN-backed CICIG from the country.
Reading list
Business Insider - Mexico sent troops to fight cartels' new billion-dollar business, and some Mexicans are fighting back
Jake Johnston, CEPR - Investigation on the US contractors detained in Haiti
Reuters - At Brazil's Petrobras, an uphill struggle to vanquish graft
Honduras Culture and Politics - DESA: Fraud and Corruption
Heritage - Speech by El Salvador’s President-elect Nayib Bukele
Francisco Toro, Washington Post - Venezuela is truly on the verge of collapse
Shannon O’Neil, Bloomberg - Lopez Obrador Is Dismantling Democracy in Mexico
Miami Herald - Trump seeks to slash democracy funds for Venezuela, Cuba
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