Latin America in 2022 - Omicron and then post-pandemic politics
Whether it’s medically/scientifically accurate or not, from a political and economic perspective, the region will transition to a post-pandemic environment by the middle of this year.
Latin America will face a huge spike in Covid-19 cases in the opening months of this year. Every country will see a surge of positive tests that far exceeds previous waves. Hospitalizations will likely reach the levels of previous waves in many countries, in part due to locations quickly maxing out their limited hospital capacity. Deaths will almost certainly be fewer than previous waves given the rates of vaccinations and previous infections, but some smaller countries with lower vaccination rates and lower case rates from previous waves may be the exceptions and hit particularly hard.
Then the pandemic will be over.
I don’t mean that as an epidemiological statement. Covid-19 isn’t going to disappear. Most medical experts believe the virus will become endemic and we’ll see occasional waves of cases as new variants hit in the years to come.
What I’m saying is that “La Pandemia” will be over as the dominant narrative across the region’s politics, economics, media, and culture. By the second half of this year, we won’t be talking about it every day or even every week. Every country or nearly every country in Latin America and the Caribbean will attempt to move forward as if the virus is gone, even as the virus remains. The pandemic will be considered an event of the past, one with tragic consequences that will be felt for decades into the future, but something that is not ongoing. Whether it is the correct health move or not, the region will collectively take its masks off and move on. We will live in the post-pandemic world.
Here a few trends/predictions for a post-pandemic region, even as health challenges remain
Countries will find it difficult to focus on vaccinations and continued public health efforts. While continued vaccinations and boosters will be necessary, the level of urgency will no longer be present among politicians or the population. Efforts to social distance and restrict public spaces to vaccinated individuals will swiftly fall out of favor. Smart politicians should use the lessons of the pandemic to increase spending on public health, but given economic challenges, high debt and competing priorities, it will be a hard sell.
Economically, the region faces an unequal and uncertain recovery. Latin America’s economic growth has almost always been unequal, benefiting the wealthy more than the poor, and that will hold true in the post-pandemic economic rebound. The Omicron wave will bring a new temporary economic disruption followed by a short burst of growth in many countries. Businesses may face brief disruptions or shutdowns (2-3 weeks) due to temporary shortages of workers, but governments are unlikely to implement severe restrictions. The larger economic boom that many countries began experiencing in 2021 will slow in late 2022 and into 2023, even as inflation remains relatively high (relative to the 2010’s, not relative to the region’s history of hyperinflation).
The region’s two largest economies - Mexico and Brazil - will underperform most of their neighbors as well as the market’s predictions. This will occur in spite of both governments planning stimulus measures to boost their electoral prospects (Mexico with a recall referendum and Brazil with its election).
The post-pandemic environment will see continued instability in public opinion and political narratives. Between now and May, we’ll see at least four candidates temporarily take the second place spot in Colombia as they vie to face Gustavo Petro in the runoff. There is a greater than 50% chance that Brazil’s election is not Lula vs Bolsonaro in the second round. Chile’s new constitution will appear in doubt for many months but ultimately be approved and implemented. In countries without elections, most presidents will continue to languish below 50% approval, with AMLO and Bukele continuing to remain the two frustratingly notable and populist exceptions.
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