Guatemala's election - the game is rigged
President Giammattei has attacked democratic institutions and is now working to make sure this year's elections keep the current corrupt power structures in place.
In 2019, Guatemalan institutions disqualified the two leading candidates - Zury Rios and Thelma Aldana - from running in the presidential election. The resulting first round public opinion chaos created space for Alejandro Giammattei to make the second round with just under 14 percent of the vote and eventually win the election. Voter turnout was only 43 percent in the second round.
Expect an even messier election in 2023. I don't think I can put it any more clearly than El Faro did in its 13 January newsletter:
"If the words that best embody the last two years in Guatemala are corruption, judicial persecution, and impunity, then there is reason to worry about the integrity of the presidential election set for June 25."
During his term in office, President Giammattei has gradually dismantled checks on his power and the ability of other government institutions to investigate and prosecute corruption - often slipping under the radar due to even more overt abuses of democracy and human rights elsewhere in the region. Giammattei’s main goal for the 2023 election is to get an ally elected. If he can't succeed at that, at the very least, Giammattei wants to make sure that the next president and Congress will not target him and his allies for investigations once he leaves office.
A recent Q&A published by HRW and WOLA outlines how the institutions in charge of the election have been corrupted and mismanaged.
Nearly all the candidates in the presidential election are center-right or far-right and close with Guatemala's business community. Many, even those who publicly claim to be in opposition to the current government, have voted with or aligned with the current president in some way during his administration in spite of concerns about corruption and institutional degradation. The one clear leftwing opposition candidate - indigenous activist Thelma Cabrera - appears on track to have her candidacy rejected by the court system.
The legislative elections are likely to lead to a majority coalition tied to the same corrupt power structures that currently govern the country. Political parties are particularly weak, meaning that individual vote buying and coalition building after the divided election result will help the elites maintain their power structures.
Over 40 percent of Guatemalans self-identify as indigenous, and the country’s inequality is among the highest in the region with a Gini index of 48. But rural, poor, indigenous, and leftist groups are not likely to be among the big winners in this election nor do they face a competitive chance under the current environment. They are going to believe they have been treated unfairly during this process. Anger at political elites will continue. More protests against the next government are likely.
In terms of external actors, watch what Bukele says about this election. El Salvador's president is aiming to expand his influence beyond the country's borders, setting up a framework for his Nuevas Ideas party and power structures to compete for influence in multiple countries, including Guatemala. Zury Rios has already tried to compare herself favorably to Bukele and his anti-gang security push and other candidates will surely follow in her footsteps.