Friday Reading List and Venezuela Comments - 26 July 2024

A Chapito and El Mayo detained. US presidential candidate change. Cocaine shark! Just a typical slow summer news week.

Jul 26, 2024

Good morning and happy Friday from Virginia! I’m back from a road trip and will hopefully get back on track with regular newsletter writing in the coming weeks.

For World Politics Review, I wrote about Lula vs Milei.

Here are some Venezuela comments plus this week’s reading list.

Venezuela comments

Once turnout factors are modeled in, I estimate that Edmundo González has a 10-15 point lead in the race. This race is about 54-42 in favor of the opposition.
That gap means the opposition is nearly certain (>95%) to turn out more voters than the governing party.
The question is then how the votes are counted. The gap means the governing party will need to engage in both mesa-level ballot stuffing and some sort of manipulation of the count to pull off an announced victory, and that fraud should be obvious to international observers. Opposition witnesses should have proof that the vote is stolen.
My base case (60% likely) is that Maduro successfully steals the election and then represses the protests afterward and navigates the international criticism that comes his way. I’m estimating that the odds of transition are 25%. The remaining 15% of scenarios are some form of post-election chaos and violence.
The odds of a transition at 25% are high, up from 15% a few months ago, but not as high as they were in 2019 at the start of the Guaidó push. Maduro is in a stronger place than he was in 2019.
Getting to odds that are better than an inside straight draw in poker is proof of how well Machado and the opposition have run this campaign. They still need a whole lot to go correct to succeed.
If the question comes down to “will González/Machado do the right thing?” in a critical moment in the coming weeks, I think the answer is most certainly yes. The Biden administration is also smart enough to make the right moves if the opportunity presents itself. Whether this transition happens is now up to Maduro, the military, and the inner circle of Chavistas.
In a transition scenario, the key takeaway is that a González win won’t just be handed to him, even in the best-case scenario. It comes with challenges and concessions.
The process will go well beyond Sunday night. These sorts of transitions are about the post-election negotiations after the votes are cast and those can take days.
Even if Maduro successfully steals this election, as is the most likely scenario, the opposition should be proud to have built a real political movement that quite possibly has staying power. The worst thing the opposition can do is fall into a post-election cycle of despair and self-criticism. Maintain some momentum and good things can happen in the next 12-18 months.

Venezuela articles

LA Times - Opinion: Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro could lose a landslide election. But will it matter?

Journal of Democracy - Why This Time Is Different for Venezuela | Journal of Democracy

InSight Crime - How Maduro’s Criminal Regime Is Tilting the Venezuela Elections

WSJ - Maduro Allies Hunt Dissidents Abroad Ahead of Venezuela’s Election

World Politics Review - Venezuela's Election Isn't in Doubt. How Maduro Responds to It Is

Atlantic Council - Memo to the president: Seizing the opportunity for a democratic solution in Venezuela

NYT - Meet the Woman Leading Venezuela’s Opposition to Maduro

El Pais - María Corina Machado: ‘Edmundo and I are willing to ensure a peaceful transition’

FT - Is the game up for Venezuela’s ruling party after 25 years?

BBC - Nicolás Maduro: The leader promising to win 'by hook or by crook'

AP - Maduro seeks to shore up Venezuela military's support ahead of vote threatening his hold on power