Friday Reading List and Argentina comments - 17 November 2023
Milei is the favorite this weekend. But his campaign is also really disorganized.
Good morning and happy Friday! This week’s newsletter covered some updates on Nicaragua.
Argentina comments
Here is my tweet from the day after the first round.
Weeks later, I stand by that tweet. I’d say Milei is 65% or 70% likely to win this election. That makes him a strong 2:1 favorite. Though upsets are possible, this is not a coinflip.
Why is it likely Milei will win? The economy. Also, the polls that I trust. That’s the easy analysis.
Why might Milei lose? It’s not what you think. Some people will blame inaccurate polling and others Milei’s extremism, but the real threat to Milei at this point is his own disorganization. The Peronists are a GOTV machine and Milei’s team can’t even get the correct numbers of ballots to the correct locations. They won’t be on the ground convincing people to get out and vote at anywhere near the numbers of Massa’s team.
So while both a fundamental analysis and a polling model show Milei as the likely winner, what concerns me about my own prediction is that this election looks a bit like the Colombia 2022 election. In that election, the polling and polling + fundamentals models had Rodolfo Hernandez as the likely winner (also around 65% likely), but Hernandez simply didn’t organize his people well. When election day came around, the left got people out on the streets to vote and the right was busy tweeting and watching television. Campaigns and organization matter and that’s not built well into most election prediction models.
So I have Milei as the favorite and plan to write about about his likely victory next week. But if I wake up on Monday morning and that is wrong, the answer as to why will be Milei’s own disorganization. And if he wins as expected, that issue still points to a big problem for Milei’s potential government. He is not organized and not ready to govern.
With that, here is this week’s reading list and upcoming events.
Reading List
World Politics Review - Latin America’s Mining Backlash Has Global Implications
CSIS - A Western Hemisphere Minerals Strategy for the Energy Transition
Americas Quarterly - The Israel-Hamas War Is Inflaming Polarization in Latin America
Economist - Latin America’s most powerful new gang built a human-trafficking empire
Global Americans - Regional Supply Chains: The New Glue of Inter-American Relations?
Americas Quarterly - Did Biden’s Latin America Summit Offer Too Little, Too Late?
Reuters - Brazil raises $2 billion in ESG sovereign bonds debut
Economist - Mexico’s foreign policy is unambitious and erratic
AP News - Mexico’s governing party’s big test is trying to hold together without its charismatic president
Economist - Andrés Manuel López Obrador has reduced poverty in Mexico
Americas Quarterly - Mexico’s Water Crisis Is Spilling Over Into Politics
AP News - Thousands in Mexico demand justice for LGBTQ+ figure found dead after death threats
New York Times - In Mexico, Surveillance Orders That Read Like a Political Power List
Americas Quarterly - Chiapas Fears Organized Crime, and Military Intervention
Bloomberg - Argentina’s Election Isn’t Just High Stakes for Argentina — But for China, Too
New York Times - Is Argentina the First A.I. Election?
Global Americans - Elecciones Presidenciales 2023: ¿Cómo pueden afectar a las relaciones Argentina-China?
Road to the Casa Rosada - Argentina Politics Update - 15 November 2023
Americas Migration Brief - November 13, 2023
Cenital - A Lo Bukele
Foreign Policy - Cuban Athlete Defections Put Boric in a Bind
Confidencial - Purge in Nicaragua's Judiciary Leads to Over 900 Dismissals
World Politics Review - Nicaragua’s Ortega Has Crossed the Line Into Dictatorship
Bloomberg - Guatemala’s Next Leader Says Slow-Motion Coup Threatens Economy
New York Times - A Treasure May Be Off the Coast of Colombia, but Who Can Claim It?
AP News - Heavily armed Haitian gang surrounds hospital in capital and traps people inside
Global Americans - Gender Sensitivity is Critical to Haiti’s Security Solution
Economist - Why are there so many suicides in rich, stable Uruguay?
Foreign Affairs - How the World Lost Faith in the UN
Washington Post - Trump’s plan for giant detention camps points to a brutal 2024 reality
Upcoming Events
20 November, Wilson Center - US-EU Cooperation: Strengthening Environmental Protection in Latin America and the Caribbean
20 November, Georgetown Americas Institute - 2023 GU LATAM Conference
21 November, Inter-American Dialogue - Elections Series – Illuminating Argentina’s Energy Future
28 November, Atlantic Council - Exploring central bank digital currency: Evaluating challenges & developing international standards
28 November, Wilson Center - Brazil Builds Panel: Miami Edition
28 November, AS/COA - 2023 Latin American Cities Conferences: Lima
29 November, Inter-American Dialogue - The Pulse of Democracy in the Americas: Results from the 2023 AmericasBarometer
30 November, WOLA - Commemorating and Taking Stock on the 7th Anniversary of Colombia’s 2016 Peace Accord
30 November, Inter-American Dialogue - The State of Community-based Care and Support Systems for People with Disabilities in Latin America
6 December, Center for Global Development - Weathering the Storm: How Emerging Markets Can Handle Shocks and Volatile Capital Flows
6 December, CSIS - Progress and Possibility: Reflecting on 75 Years of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights