Friday Reading List and Argentina comments - 17 November 2023
Milei is the favorite this weekend. But his campaign is also really disorganized.
Good morning and happy Friday! This week’s newsletter covered some updates on Nicaragua.
Here is my tweet from the day after the first round.
Weeks later, I stand by that tweet. I’d say Milei is 65% or 70% likely to win this election. That makes him a strong 2:1 favorite. Though upsets are possible, this is not a coinflip.
Why is it likely Milei will win? The economy. Also, the polls that I trust. That’s the easy analysis.
Why might Milei lose? It’s not what you think. Some people will blame inaccurate polling and others Milei’s extremism, but the real threat to Milei at this point is his own disorganization. The Peronists are a GOTV machine and Milei’s team can’t even get the correct numbers of ballots to the correct locations. They won’t be on the ground convincing people to get out and vote at anywhere near the numbers of Massa’s team.
So while both a fundamental analysis and a polling model show Milei as the likely winner, what concerns me about my own prediction is that this election looks a bit like the Colombia 2022 election. In that election, the polling and polling + fundamentals models had Rodolfo Hernandez as the likely winner (also around 65% likely), but Hernandez simply didn’t organize his people well. When election day came around, the left got people out on the streets to vote and the right was busy tweeting and watching television. Campaigns and organization matter and that’s not built well into most election prediction models.
So I have Milei as the favorite and plan to write about about his likely victory next week. But if I wake up on Monday morning and that is wrong, the answer as to why will be Milei’s own disorganization. And if he wins as expected, that issue still points to a big problem for Milei’s potential government. He is not organized and not ready to govern.
With that, here is this week’s reading list and upcoming events.
World Politics Review - Latin America’s Mining Backlash Has Global Implications
Americas Quarterly - The Israel-Hamas War Is Inflaming Polarization in Latin America
Global Americans - Regional Supply Chains: The New Glue of Inter-American Relations?
Americas Quarterly - Did Biden’s Latin America Summit Offer Too Little, Too Late?
Americas Quarterly - Mexico’s Water Crisis Is Spilling Over Into Politics
New York Times - In Mexico, Surveillance Orders That Read Like a Political Power List
Americas Quarterly - Chiapas Fears Organized Crime, and Military Intervention
New York Times - Is Argentina the First A.I. Election?
Road to the Casa Rosada - Argentina Politics Update - 15 November 2023
Americas Migration Brief - November 13, 2023
Cenital - A Lo Bukele
Foreign Policy - Cuban Athlete Defections Put Boric in a Bind
Confidencial - Purge in Nicaragua's Judiciary Leads to Over 900 Dismissals
World Politics Review - Nicaragua’s Ortega Has Crossed the Line Into Dictatorship
New York Times - A Treasure May Be Off the Coast of Colombia, but Who Can Claim It?
Global Americans - Gender Sensitivity is Critical to Haiti’s Security Solution
Foreign Affairs - How the World Lost Faith in the UN
Washington Post - Trump’s plan for giant detention camps points to a brutal 2024 reality
20 November, Wilson Center - US-EU Cooperation: Strengthening Environmental Protection in Latin America and the Caribbean
20 November, Georgetown Americas Institute - 2023 GU LATAM Conference
21 November, Inter-American Dialogue - Elections Series – Illuminating Argentina’s Energy Future
28 November, Atlantic Council - Exploring central bank digital currency: Evaluating challenges & developing international standards
28 November, Wilson Center - Brazil Builds Panel: Miami Edition
28 November, AS/COA - 2023 Latin American Cities Conferences: Lima
29 November, Inter-American Dialogue - The Pulse of Democracy in the Americas: Results from the 2023 AmericasBarometer
30 November, Inter-American Dialogue - The State of Community-based Care and Support Systems for People with Disabilities in Latin America
6 December, Center for Global Development - Weathering the Storm: How Emerging Markets Can Handle Shocks and Volatile Capital Flows