Friday Reading List - 4 October 2024
Christmas in Venezuela; Election weekend in Brazil
Good morning and Merry October Christmas to those in Venezuela.
Programming note: Next Thursday, 10 October, I’ll be participating in a paid webinar with Good Judgment Inc where I’ll discuss my US election forecast and methodology along with others in the superforecasting group. My current forecast (which differs from many others in the group as well as 538, Nate Silver, betting markets, etc): Democrats are 75% likely to win the presidency, 85% likely to win the House, but only about 35% likely to hold the Senate.
This week’s newsletter previewed the upcoming Ecuador election.
My World Politics Review column detailed the efforts to arrest Nicolas Maduro and some of the potential consequences.
Reading List
Journal of Democracy - How Organized Crime Threatens Latin America
Americas Quarterly - The Past, Present and Future of Soy in South America
Brookings - How are the United States and China intersecting in Latin America?
Economist - Why is football in Latin America so complex?
San Antonio Express News - Mexico's first woman president wants foreign investment. She'll have to curb cartels first.
Bloomberg - Mexico’s First Female President Claudia Sheinbaum Charts Course Post-AMLO
Bloomberg - Mexican Leader’s Bold Clean Power Plan Dismissed as ‘Pipe Dream’
El Financiero - Lo que le espera a Sheinbaum... Estos son los conflictos internacionales que hereda de AMLO
AP - Mexico's president touts austerity on his way out of office but lavishes largesse on friends
NYT - As Mexico’s President Steps Down, Some Laud His Legacy, but Others Fear It
NYT - The American Drug Mules Smuggling Fentanyl Into the U.S.
Reuters - How fentanyl traffickers are exploiting a U.S. trade law
AP - 6 migrants from Egypt, Peru and Honduras die near Guatemalan border after Mexican soldiers open fire
NYT - Brazil’s Largest Mafia Is Entering Politics. The Government Must Act.
Economist - Jair Bolsonaro still shapes Brazil’s right wing
Bloomberg - Gang Violence Is Moving to the Amazon’s Fast-Growing Cities
AP - Dramatic images show drought's toll on Amazon and its rivers
CNN - Brazil drought: Stark pictures reveal dramatic shrinking of major Amazon rivers
Foreign Affairs - How to Get Colombia’s Peace Process Back on Track
Economist - Peruvians are debating how to protect isolated tribes
Bloomberg - Javier Milei Wants Argentines to Dollarize the Economy for Him
Bloomberg - Europe’s Global Green Ambitions Push Too Hard Once Again (particularly relevant to Central America)
Bloomberg - Guatemala President Bernardo Arevalo Says 'Corrupt Coalition' Plans Comeback
AP - Closely watched selection of Guatemala's new Supreme Court remains flawed, critics say
CFR - 6 Highlights From Our Conversation With Guatemala President Bernardo Arévalo
Tico Times - Costa Rica's President Chaves Considers Resignation for 2026 Deputy Run
Bloomberg - Panama Finance Minister Chapman Sees Exporting First Quantum Copper as Viable
Atlantic Council - Accelerating business confidence in northern Central America: A roadmap for Guatemala
Reuters - Haiti anti-graft investigators accuse top-ranking officials of corruption
The Hill - An American Marshall Plan for Haiti
Miami Herald - Miami firms put Haiti shipping on hold as gangs target main port, disrupt cargo
NYT - U.S. Raises New Concerns Over Chinese Lending Practices
Guardian - How oligarchs took on the UK fraud squad – and won (it’s a few weeks old, but I just got around to reading it and it’s excellent)
Bloomberg - US Chips Guide Russian Missiles Killing Ukrainians
Gallup - Global Safety Research Center
Thanks for reading
Have a great weekend!
