Five comments on how the Iran conflict will impact Latin America
The Venezuela question hangs over everything
Distracted. Trump’s National Security Strategy, published late last year, made the Western Hemisphere a priority and directly said, “But the days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over.” RIP/QEDP that sentence three months later.
Three days in, the current major military operation in Iran and the broader Middle East does not appear to be a short one. The longer it continues, the more it will distract from the Western Hemisphere agenda. Some countries and leaders may be grateful for the breathing space. But the same way so many said “be careful what you wish for,” when Trump turned his focus to the region, also beware what could go wrong if the US loses focus and resources dwindle.
A large number of Trump-friendly Western Hemisphere leaders are scheduled to meet with him on March 7th in Florida, a meeting billed as a way to shore up his allies ahead of Trump’s upcoming trip to China. It is now likely that the Iran conflict either overshadows that meeting or dominates its agenda. If the meeting is cancelled, it’s a sign of just how much the Middle East is distracting the US from what should be its priority region.
LatAm’s response. The region has lined up as expected. Brazil and Colombia condemned the US attack. Argentina cheered the US on. Other countries tried to thread the needle, with Mexico, Chile, and Ecuador all avoiding taking sides while calling for peace and an end to the attacks, with some leaning slightly more toward or away from the US if you read between the lines.
Perhaps the most interesting response came from Venezuela. Delcy Rodriguez is a longtime ally of Iran. However, the Venezuelan government delayed issuing a statement, then issued a very vague and weak statement, and then withdrew that statement from social media, apparently under pressure from the Trump administration to avoid any appearance of supporting Iran.
Energy costs. If this is a quick one-week event, the energy impact may quickly disappear. But if there is a sustained conflict in the Middle East, the price of oil and gas will rise substantially due to a global supply shock. That is good for producers like Brazil and Guyana. It is potentially fantastic for Venezuela, which wants higher prices so it can rebuild its oil industry. It is awful for many of the region’s net energy importers, including much of Central America and the Caribbean, as well as many of the region’s poorest, for whom fuel and transportation costs are a significant portion of their household budgets.
One big loser will be Cuba, which is already facing a fuel crisis and cannot afford any rise in oil prices. Various media outlets suggest that pressuring Cuba remains on the US agenda, even as it focuses on the Middle East. It’s also possible that the Iran strikes following the Venezuela military operation will convince Cuba to lean into its negotiations with Trump and his team.
Iran’s response. Can Iranian proxies respond in Latin America? My World Politics Review column last June suggested that while we should always be vigilant to that sort of attack, the fact that it’s been over three decades since the last successful significant Iranian attack in the Western Hemisphere (in 1994 in Argentina) means that it’s also possible they completely lack the capabilities and that the threat is overhyped. If they can’t attack this month, when the conflict in the Middle East is raging, and they are responding with every capability at their disposal, it means they aren’t able to. Of course, Iran just lost two of its biggest allies in the region in Venezuela and Bolivia. So if its Western Hemisphere networks were already weak in June of last year, they are even weaker today.
Venezuela hangs over everything. The success of the Maduro detention operation likely primed Trump and his team to have optimism that they could succeed in Iran. The country plays into the diplomacy, energy narrative, and Iran’s response capabilities. However, if Iran distracts the US’s attention even as it provides greater financial resources to Venezuela, it may be Delcy Rodriguez and her dictatorship who end up with a winning hand.