Ecuador - Two risks around the election
The two big concerns are protests by the losing side and the politicization of the gangs who are behind Ecuador’s recent violence.
Question from a reader: What are some potential security concerns around Ecuador’s election in August?
TL;DR: The two big concerns are protests by the losing side and the politicization of the gangs who are behind Ecuador’s recent violence. While possible, neither scenario is likely right now.
Background: Ecuador’s snap elections for both Congress and the president will be held on 20 August. A runoff will occur in October if nobody wins the presidency in the first round.
The political crisis that caused President Guillermo Lasso to invoke muerte cruzada and call for new elections was not directly related to the country’s security concerns, but the declining security situation hangs over Lasso’s term in office as a key failure of his administration. The violence weighed down his approval rating and certainly played into his decision to not seek the presidency again in this election.
Though the dynamics are different, Ecuador’s security situation is just as bad as Colombia’s or Mexico’s at the moment. A New York Times article last week provided good background on the situation.
Post-election protests are possible, particularly if the losing side claims fraud.
The political climate for these elections is tense, with a large number of candidates competing. As has been seen in so many other recent elections, first round elections with weak party systems, high numbers of undecided voters, and many presidential candidates often lead to late shifts in voter preferences and a surprise candidate emerging. The candidates that are the front runners six weeks out may not make the second round, and that could lead to claims of fraud.
Given that the president who is elected will only serve out the remainder of Lasso’s term, which ends in 2025, the losers will be incentivized to undermine the legitimacy of the next president from day one.
The potential for protests or civil unrest is particularly high if Correa’s party does poorly in the elections. The party did well in municipal elections earlier this year and started this election from the front runner position for both Congress and the presidency. If they lose the presidency or do particularly poorly in the Congress, they will return to being an active opposition with the goal of undermining the next president.
Politicians are talking about gangs; the danger is if the gangs respond
Every candidate is forced to address the current security crisis and nearly all of them are promising some version of a mano dura policy that takes a harder line on the violent crime that is occurring. One candidate in particular, Jan Topic, has promised to be more hardline than Bukele. While his rhetoric is over the top and gaining some public support, many other candidates are being forced to take harder lines as well.
The big red flag we should all be looking for is if the criminal groups appear to get involved in this election in any way. The gangs may feel incentivized to respond if they believe the next president will crack down on their operations or their leadership structures in the prisons. If Ecuador’s criminal groups make political statements, threaten any specific candidate, or commit acts of violence that appear aimed to intimidate voters or politicians, it’s a sign that violence will worsen during and after the election.
These scenarios are possible, but not likely.
Right now, I’ll put the possibility of serious post-election protests (the sort that shut down cities for more than one day and cause major damage) around 20% and the possibility of politicized violence by criminals around 10%. I don’t think either scenario is likely, but it’s worth monitoring for warning signs of either scenario becoming more likely in the weeks ahead.