Coronavirus Update - October 2020
Wave two may be coming while wave one never really ended. The undercount of deaths in Mexico may become a political weapon against AMLO.
In July, I published the chart above as a thought experiment for how Latin America’s cases would evolve over the rest of the year. As of the end of October, Argentina’s trend looks like Scenario B in which new cases have continued to rise. Most other countries in the region (Peru, Chile, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia) appear to be following some variation of Scenario A’s peak, plateau and gradual decline, but with new case numbers remaining relatively high.
Below is a graphic as of today (29 October) showing how the case numbers look in four South American countries plus the overall South American trend line.
Above: Chart of new daily cases from Our World in Data using European CDC numbers
The risk of a second wave amid quarantine fatigue
South America’s trend lines have not followed the same pattern as those in the United States or Europe. However, the emergence of a second wave in both the US and EU in recent weeks is likely a bad sign for Latin America. As with the US and Europe, most of the region has been opening up its economies and businesses. People are returning to work and restaurants. While certain activities remain closed to avoid superspreader events, the increased contact among populations raises the potential for a new wave of cases in the coming two months.
Unlike Europe, most of Latin America did not have months of respite during the summer. While the region was initially supportive of measures to combat the virus, after months of failure by most regional governments, a majority of Latin America’s population including the unemployed and those working in informal sectors will reject attempts to re-lockdown. The region faces increases in food insecurity and additional restrictions will cause people to miss more meals. For those reasons, new lockdowns are unlikely unless cases rise to truly dire levels.
Even if Latin America escapes a second wave, the second waves in the US and EU will still impact the region. Renewed shutdowns of economic activity and reduced tourism will continue to impact the region’s already battered economy.
Mexico’s numbers undermine AMLO’s attempt to ignore the issue
This week, Mexico’s government acknowledged that it experienced about 193,000 excess deaths as of late September. It attributed about 140,000 of those deaths to Covid-19. That is well above the official death toll of 89,000 or the previous estimates that were closer to the 100,000 range.
While other countries have certainly experienced excess deaths that should be attributed to the pandemic, Mexico’s excess death numbers per capita are likely higher than most other countries in the hemisphere. The Lopez Obrador government has been among the worst in terms of testing and reporting cases. The president has consistently downplayed the virus and attempted to focus on other issues. Efforts to avoid counting cases and deaths in the early months of the pandemic are going to be revealed by the statistics in the months to come.
One question will be whether AMLO faces eventual political repercussions for these deaths. His predecessor, President Peña Nieto, tried to avoid debating the security situation but was never able to dodge the issue of 43 missing students. What happens when one of AMLO’s political opponents figures out how to campaign on approximately 43,000 undercounted coronavirus deaths? That sort of criticism could hit hard during next year’s midterms.
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