Colombia - Left vs Right or Left vs Something Else?
The best description for Rodolfo Hernández is anti-establishment.
Article after article describes Rodolfo Hernández as a “rightwing populist.” I did it myself last week.
I’ve seen pushback from that framing on social media and various WhatsApp conversations since Hernández made his way into the second round of Colombia’s presidential election. Will Freeman, who interviewed Hernández a few months ago, has done a great job on Twitter providing far more nuance on Hernández and what he believes.
First, here are three reasons Hernández is often considered a rightwing populist.
The most common analogies for Hernández have been Bolsonaro, Bukele and Trump, all of whom are often labeled rightwing populists. Bolsonaro and Trump are both self-defined rightwing politicians, though some of their economic policies are protectionist on trade and include significant government spending, far from the free-market and fiscally austere policies of the political right in the past. Hernández’s anti-immigrant comments in the past definitely fit the mold of those two leaders. Bukele is a bit more complicated, with political roots in the left but with some economic and social policy preferences that definitely lean towards the right today. The fact Hernández has specifically praised Bukele’s use of the military to occupy the Salvadoran Congress problematically suggests some preference for Bukele’s more authoritarian leanings.
Some of the framing comes from who Hernández now faces. Petro has spent decades on the political left. Everyone, Petro included, would describe him as a leftist. He fits the traditional definition of leftwing as well as nearly any politician on the continent. Hernández is now Petro’s opponent. Hernández is definitely not a leftwing politician in the way Petro is. So describing Hernández as rightwing is a simple frame to describe how he’s not a leftist. Certainly a portion of the political left is going to embrace describing him that way. It’s a reflection of polarization and not yet dead Cold War era framing.
Finally, Hernández is framed as a rightwing politician because he’s a businessman. He’s made millions on engineering projects. In simple heuristics, successful business people who enter politics must be pro-capitalist and therefore rightwing (though that is often not the case).
However, in spite of all that, there are also reasons the rightwing label shouldn’t stick.
To the extent Hernández’s political views are known, they don’t fit the typical description of the political right on either social or economic issues. Hernández, as he wrote in a twitter thread last night, is in favor of abortion rights, supports marriage equality, opposes fracking, supports renewable energy investments, wants to legalize drugs, and has said he wants additional government spending that would focus on reducing poverty in the country.
Apart from the left-right spectrum, Hernández has taken a “drain the swamp” mantra into the campaign, denouncing the entire establishment political class and promising an anti-corruption campaign that will target politicians of all ideologies from far left to far right. And that anti-corruption platform, even if it has very little substantive backing or constitutional justification, is part of what’s driving his popularity nationally.
The most important aspect to the Hernández political movement is that he’s anti-establishment, not that he’s rightwing. In that way, he’s actually quite like Trump. Rather than falling in line with the traditional rightwing views, it’s quite possible Hernández is going to reshape the political right in Colombia and what it believes in the coming years.
This muddying of the right side of the political spectrum is something that is being seen across the continent. The previous generation of politicians including Uribe, Macri and Piñera is being replaced by politicians who are more populist and less coherent in their ideologies. A few weeks ago I mentioned that the left side of the political spectrum was dividing over environmental issues. It’s less clear what schism exists on the political right, but Hernández definitely represents the growing ideological confusion quite well.
If you work on issues in the region and want a more detailed briefing, Sergio Guzmán of Colombia Risk Analysis and I are holding a paid webinar on Colombia’s elections on 15 June. It’s an opportunity to discuss the election and the potential policies of the next president. The cost is $100. You can sign up here or here. Video will be available for those who sign up but can’t attend. We’re also available if your organization would rather hold a private call. Feel free to reach out if that is the case or you have any other questions.