Colombia election notes - May 2026
I now have Ivan Cepeda as the favorite, with a lot of uncertainty.
In late April, when I wrote that Paloma Valencia was the favorite, I said that I’d revise my prediction if the late polls shifted against her or her campaign had problems. Well, both of those things have happened. On the campaign trail, Valencia struggled with her message, made strategic mistakes, and never managed to go on the attack against de la Espriella. Here are the latest polls. I think I transcribed them all correctly, but you can find the polls and links at La Silla Vacia and Wikipedia if you want to double-check them or build your own models:
Guarumo-EcoAnalítica (May 11-19):
First Round: Cepeda 37, de la Espriella 28, Valencia 22
2nd Round: de la Espriella 44, Cepeda 40
2nd Round: Valencia 45, Cepeda 40
CNC (May 16-22):
First Round: Cepeda 33, de la Espriella 31, Valencia 13
2nd Round: de la Espriella 44, Cepeda 41
2nd Round: Cepeda 41, Valencia 39
Invamer (May 13-20):
First Round: Cepeda 45, de la Espriella 32, Valencia 14
2nd Round: Cepeda 52, de la Espriella 45
2nd Round: Cepeda 53, Valencia 44
Maldonado Manjarrez (May 19-22):
First Round: Cepeda 37, Valencia 29, de la Espriella 19
2nd Round: Cepeda 45, de la Espriella 34
2nd Round: Valencia 47, Cepeda 42
AtlasIntel (May 18-21):
First Round: Cepeda 38, de la Espriella 36, Valencia 14
2nd Round: de la Espriella 50, Cepeda 41
2nd Round: Valencia 45, Cepeda 42
Tempo (May 15-17):
First Round: Cepeda 38, de la Espriella 24, Valencia 27
2nd Round: Cepeda 43, de la Espriella 36
2nd Round: Valencia 43, Cepeda 41
CELAG (May 2026):
First Round: Cepeda 41, de la Espriella 19, Valencia 17
2nd Round: Cepeda 49, de la Espriella 33
2nd Round: Cepeda 49, Valencia 37
Analysis, prediction, hedging
Abelardo has gotten a free pass. To the extent she’s gone negative, Valencia has focused her efforts on Cepeda and has avoided attacking de la Espriella. That has been a huge mistake in her campaign, and it has cost her support. And Cepeda is smart enough to know that de la Espriella is a far weaker 2nd round candidate, so he’s kept his powder dry. That’s allowed the de la Espriella bubble to reinflate. Even if his ground game is weaker and Valencia’s is stronger, de la Espriella has enough of a public opinion edge to be more likely to make the second round.
Abelardo has also won the qualitative narrative. In conversations, many Colombians seem convinced that the anti-Petro people they know are flipping toward de la Espriella. Anecdotes aren’t great data for making predictions, but to the extent that they matter, they have helped de la Espriella win the vibes narrative among people who discuss politics all the time.
And yet, Abelardo remains a bubble. Sure, his social media driven campaign may get him to the second round, but he’s a paper tiger. He lacks a party infrastructure and political machine. If de la Espriella makes the second round, Cepeda will begin attacking the many scandals. De la Espriella’s campaign will struggle to win centrist voters, taking for granted that they will turn against the left in an anti-incumbent environment.
Petro’s approval rating and the economy have held up well. A few months ago, I thought the Strait of Hormuz crisis would damage Colombia’s economy, cause higher inflation, and begin to eat away at Petro’s approval rating rebound. While many other countries have faced serious economic challenges (see Bolivia), that hasn’t happened in Colombia. Petro has spent a good deal of political and real capital to hold off any economic crisis during the election season. Colombia’s economic numbers have come in better than expected, and Petro’s approval rating remains strong (better than Cepeda’s!) in most of the polls above. We should all be worried about Colombia’s fiscal situation post-election, but spending now has propped up the economy long enough to prevent an anti-incumbent wave.
Cepeda is now the favorite to win the presidency. With the most likely second round being Cepeda vs de la Espriella, I think Cepeda is the strong favorite to win that runoff. I also think there is about a 20% chance he wins in the first round, because turnout from the left could overperform the estimates that most pollsters are using. Overall, I have Cepeda about 60% likely to win, a big shift from my late April prediction.
High uncertainty. There are many ways the polls can miss an election that is this complex. There are scenarios where Valencia makes the second round and wins, scenarios where she loses to Cepeda in a second round, and scenarios where de la Espriella wins big in the second round. For those reasons, I don’t feel overly confident in my prediction. With that in mind, here are two ways that my prediction of Cepeda being the favorite could go wrong.
Why Valencia could still win? There are still a few polls showing Valencia edging out de la Espriella in the first round. And Colombia’s polls have missed in previous elections, including 2022 with Rodolfo Hernandez, and could miss this one as well. Her coalition did pull in six million votes during the primary, which would be enough to come in second place in this election if they stick with her and Oviedo (far from guaranteed). Meanwhile, de la Espriella has never won an election and his party severely underperformed during the legislative races.
How can de la Espriella win? Prediction markets have de la Espriella as the favorite, which means everything I’ve written above goes against them. How could prediction markets be correct and I be wrong? First, I could be wrong about my assumption that he is a candidate with serious weaknesses and no ground game. Maybe the social media bubble is all he needs to win in round one, and the right and anti-incumbent center swiftly consolidate around him afterward. Second, a major security or economic crisis during the second round could tilt the electorate away from the incumbent party. Third, Cepeda could stumble, as Valencia has, and fail to go on the attack.
Data to watch. Assuming there is a second round, the numbers to watch in the first round are 1) how far off are the polls, 2) how close is Cepeda to 50%, 3) how big is the “centrist” vote?
I’ll be speaking about Colombia at a few events next week, including one on Monday immediately after the election. For any public events, I’ll include a link in this Friday’s newsletter.