Chile - Notes on Kast's election - December 2025
Chile's pendulum demands change
Similar to many other countries in this hemisphere, Chile is:
Democratic,
Ideologically diverse,
With a moderate median voter, and
Angry with the status quo.
The way those four points play off each other has shaped the country’s politics for the past two decades.
In a country with various political coalitions on the center, left, and right, Chile’s presidency has bounced back and forth between the left and right, each president being a bit further from the center than the previous one, without electing a centrist president in this century. However, the divided Congressional votes have fairly consistently required the centrist parties to form a majority coalition.
Meanwhile, the country’s voters continuously vote for change in the abstract, but then cautiously back down when the details of that change prove to be more radical than the median voter wants. Every election in the past two decades has been an anti-incumbent election, but every president has faced a rapid decline in approval ratings soon after taking office. In various referendums, 80% voted to rewrite the constitution just five years ago, but every proposed constitutional draft has been rejected by voters. That was the topic of my World Politics Review column back in September.
I write all that as Chile’s election went as expected this weekend. Jose Antonio Kast won 58% of the vote in the runoff election. The president-elect was swiftly congratulated by President Boric and his opponent, Jeannette Jara. Chile’s voting process was clean, and the count was swift and respected by all sides.
Kast is the farthest right candidate to win since Chile returned to democracy, but
He’s moderated over the past decade compared to his first presidential run
He’ll be constrained by Chile’s institutions, including a moderate coalition in Congress and the courts
Despite his past support for Pinochet, he’s ultimately a small-d democrat in the modern era who respects elections. He’ll hand off power to a successor.
In short, Kast is likely to turn out more reasonable than his critics claim, and he’ll be constrained by the limits of the office. If recent patterns hold, voters will shift against him if his policies do not deliver quick results. Many chose Kast because he was the alternative to the current government and was perceived as “less bad” than his opponent, not because they endorsed the specifics of his policy agenda.
In the early months, Kast will lean into his security populism and anti-migrant policies that won him the election. The new president will also portray himself as a champion of free markets, but it’s not as if Chile turned Marxist under Boric. It is already one of the most competitive free market economies in the region, giving Kast far less room to maneuver and offer major reforms compared to countries like Argentina and Brazil.
On foreign policy, Kast will rhetorically side with Trump on most international issues. For example, he’ll criticize Maduro and advocate for a democratic Venezuela, but that’s an easy win for him. Internationally, one big test for Kast will be the issue of Russia-Ukraine. Does Kast maintain his previous pro-Ukraine position or does he begin to shift like Milei did in the face of pressure from the US? Similar to how Venezuela was a litmus test for Boric’s independence from the far left, Ukraine could serve as a test case for Kast’s ability to demonstrate his own moral strength and independence (or not).
Kast’s first foreign policy crisis may hit before he takes office regarding relations with Colombia. Late yesterday, Colombian President Gustavo Petro criticized the election of Kast. Colombia and Chile are trading partners and allies, but Petro has been eager to fight with other regional leaders, and he’s in a major dispute with the US president. Kast may find himself being asked to respond forcefully to Petro in the coming weeks, including whether he’ll back US sanctions against Colombia’s president.
Beyond rhetoric and UN votes, it’s not clear what Kast will be willing to do in practice to demonstrate he is an ally of the US. Will he cut any investments from China? Crack down on China’s illegal fishing fleet? Send Chile’s navy to target sanctioned oil tankers? China is Chile’s number one export partner and has significant investments throughout the country. It will be hard for Kast to show he backs the new Trump Corollary without a cost to Chile’s economy.
With that said, three things I’m watching in the first 100 days:
Does Kast try to work with the moderates and negotiate with his political opponents when setting his early agenda, or does he stack his cabinet with ideologues and avoid major legislation in favor of decrees and a security agenda he can do through executive power alone?
Does Kast take any real anti-China actions to reduce the Chinese influence in Chile’s economy? Even a limited move here would have big economic consequences for the country.
How aggressive are Kast’s security and anti-migrant policies and does the public support them? He promised big moves during the campaign, and it’s the one agenda item on which he appears to have a popular mandate. But some of the policies he proposed (mass detention and deportation) risk overreach and may face pushback in both public opinion and the courts if actually implemented.
Thanks for reading.