Chile is going to reform its constitution
The next big fight is over the April vote for the constitution convention membership.
Above: Via the Twitter account of Susana Riquelme Parra. Map of Santiago shows widespread support for a new constitution other than the wealthiest regions in the Northeast.
Chile’s voters approved a process to rewrite the new constitution, with 78% voting in favor of the referendum and 51% turnout. Every region of Chile voted in favor as well as 341 out of 346 of the country’s comunas.
You should go read Patricio Navia’s analysis on the next steps for the Chilean constitution. It’s excellent and some of what I write below pivots off that essay.
While there were huge celebrations on Sunday over the referendum’s results, most political observers saw them as a forgone conclusion. In contrast, the April vote for the 155 members of the constitutional convention is a giant unknown and has the potential to reshape politics for decades to come.
The constitutional convention is going to be elected next April under the same rules as Chile’s lower house of Congress. This will be a proportional representation system that typically has pushed parties into coalitions and given minority views a significant seat at the table. If many parties compete or if Chile’s more conservative factions can get their act together and turn out closer to 40% support, there will be a divide within the constitutional convention and no clear two-thirds coalition to reach an easy approval.
However, if an overwhelming majority (not unthinkable given 78% approved the referendum) can unite behind a coalition, that group will have full control and a mandate to write the document they want with almost zero veto points.
I see five potential scenarios for the convention coming out of the April vote:
Divided convention leads to a sensible compromise constitution.
Divided convention deadlocks on rewriting the constitution.
Divided convention leads to a messy compromise document that includes what Navia calls “ambitious promises” and “unfunded mandates.”
United convention writes a constitution that is broadly supported by Chilean society.
United convention becomes overly ambitious and writes a document that is generally unworkable and loses support among society.
The April election and the convention will be a test for Chile’s parties. It will also be an opportunity for young and ambitious politicians to make a name for themselves.
Can the debate transition from government role to government structure?
The debate over the constitution has largely focused around the responsibilities of government rather than its structure. The population supported a constitutional rewrite because it broadly supports more and better government backing for education, healthcare and pensions.
However, once the constitutional convention begins to rewrite the document, the entire structure of the government will be in play. The powers of the presidency (assuming Chile chooses to remain a presidential system), the legislature and the court system will be reshuffled. The role of the military and how it is funded will be rethought. There will likely be a large debate over the ability for local communities to be consulted and potentially veto mining and other projects of national importance to the economy.
Ultimately, the governing structure matters more than the stated protections for the success of the constitution. Writing “free education for all” into a constitution doesn’t make it happen. The country needs executive, legislative and judicial branches that can pass budgets, tax appropriately and enforce regulations that make the free education promise a reality.
Chile’s current problems revolve around the fact the government as it is currently structured has been unable to translate long term popular demands related to education, healthcare and other issues into policies that can pass through the system and be implemented.
Opponents of constitutional reform worry that creating a government structure that is more freely able to tax and spend (and potentially required to spend more due to new constitutional language) will harm Chile’s economic model. Sunday’s election shows those opponents are currently losing the argument.
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