CFK Scenarios in Argentina and five other stories

It was a bad week for Petro. I feel like lots of weeks are bad weeks for Petro. But this one was also bad for Colombia.

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In today’s newsletter:

1. CFK Scenarios (no paywall)

2. FARC bombings and drone threat

3. Petro’s bad week (again)

4. Lula

5. Crime in Peru

6. Panama Protests

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Former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner lost her final appeal and is officially convicted on corruption charges. She is banned from running for office and will likely face several years under house arrest.

Here are some scenarios for what happens next from most to least likely. The most likely scenario is good for Milei’s political future. Most of the remaining scenarios harm his political fortunes.

• It’s never over. Sure, this was the final appeal, but when it comes to such high profile cases, the legal and political fight continues. Argentina argues about CFK, her legal status, and her legacy for the rest of the year. Implication: Good for Milei and his midterm chances as the Peronists remain divided and arguing over CFK. This is why Milei is talking about Kirchner and her case this week, making sure she remains his top political opponent in the national narrative.

• Fades from the conversation. CFK goes into house arrest and stops being at the center of Argentine politics. The Peronists move on to a new generation of leadership. Implication: Bad for Milei.

• Becomes the object of sympathy. Though the former president has low approval ratings and is certainly guilty of corruption, she is not so hated that the entire country is celebrating her imprisonment. One unlikely but possible outcome is that a portion of the country rallies around her and her conviction unifies the Peronists going into the next election. Implication: Bad for Milei.

• Returns in triumph. Many Latin American leaders have spent some limited time in prison only to return and win elections. A short house arrest stint, followed by a surprise legal move that overturns the sentence and frees her could give her new political momentum. Implication: Bad for Milei.

• Prison break. Kirchner avoids detention and ends up on the run, living in exile after receiving political asylum. Implication: Good for Milei. Corrupt leaders in exile rarely win the same sympathy or political capital as those who remain in the country.

A series of attacks in Cali and elsewhere in southwest Colombia left a half dozen people dead and over 50 injured. It was a shocking wave of violence by the Estado Mayor Central (EMC) branch of the FARC, demonstrating far more coordination and capability than the group has shown in a long time. It’s an intelligence failure by the Colombian security forces and a strategic failure for Petro’s total peace agenda.

The EMC/FARC statement about the attacks suggested that they are planning to use improvised explosive devices on drones in the near future.