Bukele’s gang negotiations - September 2020

El Faro reveals that President Bukele has a deal with MS-13 to reduce violence and attempt to win next year’s legislative elections.

Last week, El Faro revealed evidence that the government of President Nayib Bukele has negotiated with MS-13 to reduce violence in El Salvador. An English translation of the article is available. Bukele, who has been very critical of negotiations conducted by previous governments and even prosecuted some officials who negotiated with gangs, denied the allegations. 

Bukele negotiated with the gangs previously when he was mayor of San Salvador and many analysts believed earlier this year that some sort of negotiation had led to the decline in homicides. International Crisis Group had an excellent report on the issue in July. The El Faro report provides some solid evidence to confirm that speculation including prison logbooks and witness testimony documenting government officials visiting gang leaders.

Above: Part of the documents revealed by El Faro demonstrating government officials visiting a prison along with three masked men who were not identified and believed to be gang leaders.

I recommend reading the commentary from Steven Dudley and Roberto Valencia about the new revelations. Dudley (who also has a book about MS-13 launching this month) highlights the political nature of the gangs. That political nature is quite important as Bukele’s negotiations appear directly related to his efforts to win control of the Congress in elections next year. Valencia asks important questions about how we should view the news of the negotiations for better prison conditions with Bukele’s overt propaganda related to worsening prison conditions earlier this year.

Bukele is negotiating for temporary political gain rather than sustainable improvements

Previous gang truces in El Salvador saw reductions in reported homicides, but increases in reports of extortions and disappearances. The gang truces also saw spikes in violence when they ended.

Bukele’s negotiations to reduce violence and get gang support for next year’s legislative elections mean that they are similarly unsustainable. By allegedly allowing gangs to control criminal activity with impunity in exchange for reduced violence, the country risks a snapback of violence at some point when the situation breaks down.

There are three major gangs in El Salvador and Bukele reportedly has a deal only with the largest of them, the MS-13. Those other gangs (two offshoots of Barrio 18) can and will play a spoiler unless Bukele offers them similar concessions or he uses the security forces to choose a winner among the criminal groups. Both of those strategies have potential negative effects.

The Salvadoran population is very much against negotiations with the gangs and critical of previous governments’ efforts to offer better conditions to those gangs. That is one reason Bukele promoted his own cruel prison conditions for gang members earlier this year.

One question is whether Bukele will face a backlash due to the El Faro report that he is negotiating with gangs. While it will take time to play out in the opinion polls, I don’t expect the population to punish the president over this. It is absolutely possible that the same population that says they oppose gang negotiations will give the popular president credit for reduced violence. 

One additional risk coming out of this report is that Bukele will double down on his authoritarian tendencies. El Salvador’s president does not want congressional or judicial oversight of these negotiations. Bukele is already targeting media outlets and journalists who are attempting to report facts about his administration that he is attempting to cover up. The additional coverage of Bukele’s covert negotiation strategy will likely cause the president to be increasingly intolerant to oversight and transparency.

Thanks for reading

I previously wrote about security in El Salvador in July and April.

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