Brazil - Pro-Bolsonaro protests - April 2020
Brazil’s president is undermining his own government and increasing the risks to Brazilian democracy.
President Jair Bolsonaro appeared at a protest calling for a military coup that would toss out the Congress and courts. Having fired his health minister last week (after failing to do so the week before), Brazil’s president has pushed his staunch anti-quarantine stance while most of the rest of the federal government and nearly all state and municipal governments have backed more responsible health measures.
Above: Images of Bolsonaro coughing on video during yesterday’s protest. Political opponents are demanding the president release more info about his health.
There is almost certainly not going to be a pro-Bolsonaro military coup in Brazil. The institutions are not in favor, the public is not in favor, and the military leaders are not in favor. In fact, in the unlikely event Bolsonaro gave an official order to his military to shut down the Congress, the most likely outcome would be Bolsonaro getting tossed out himself in the resulting standoff.
For that reason, Bolsonaro isn’t giving a real order to the military to engage in a coup. Instead, he is showing up at protests and playing public relations games to boost his standing with his political base.
Bolsonaro puts Brazil’s institutions at risk amid a health crisis
The risk to Brazilian democracy is that the president is increasing the potential of a political and/or constitutional crisis amid the global health crisis. While a pro-Bolsonaro military coup is very unlikely, stunts like this create tensions, potential divisions and confusion over chain of command. The military must make a determination when to follow presidential orders and when to ignore his rants because he’s just engaging in political posturing.
Bolsonaro is also partaking in increasingly risky behavior, backing himself into a corner in terms of siding with the most extreme positions on the Brazilian political spectrum. Going that extreme demands that he continues escalating the tension, meaning at some point in the future, the president may be forced to give an order he isn’t sure the military or civilian government leaders will follow.
Additionally, in calling for extra-constitutional actions, even if he’s doing it as a political stunt, Bolsonaro creates the potential for other extraordinary events. He has already seen major defections by governors and municipal leaders. The president is raising the risk of mass protests against his government. He is also increasing the possibility of impeachment attempts by his political opponents in the Congress.
Bolsonaro is losing support
Every leader in the hemisphere is struggling in some way to manage the dual health and economic crises they face. Even in the best political circumstances, coronavirus is a difficult challenge. Bolsonaro worsened the situation by losing public support and alienating the political allies he needs most: his cabinet, the leaders of the Congress, and the country’s state and municipal leaders.
Bolsonaro’s actions are increasing polarization between his small base of supporters and the growing number of opponents. That is bad for Brazil, even if the worst case political scenarios don’t take place.
Through his own actions, Bolsonaro is making himself less relevant in the day-to-day government decisions. The country’s policy response to coronavirus is suffering as the president encourages political fights. That will mean a higher number of deaths and a slower economic recovery, which harms every Brazilian and all of Brazil's neighbors in South America.
Assuming the country holds its municipal elections on time later this year, if Bolsonaro continues on his current path, the president’s opponents will see major gains. Even without congressional elections, members of Congress are abandoning Bolsonaro and that is likely to increase as the president’s political fortunes fall.
Thanks for reading and subscribing
I’m sending this report to subscribers on Monday and will open it up to non-subscribers later this week. I appreciate the support for this newsletter during the coronavirus crisis. I hope to have more written on populism and quarantines later this week. Please feel free to forward this to your colleagues and encourage them to subscribe at https://boz.substack.com