Brazil - Bolsonaro fears losing
Brazil's president will claim fraud because he fears the consequences of losing. Lula continues to lead simply by being the more rational candidate.
My World Politics Review column this week (behind a paywall) discusses Bolsonaro’s hopes to involve the Brazilian military when he protests losing the election later this year. Key quote: “Bolsonaro believes the Brazilian military exists to audit the elections, but not to protect the country’s territory from illegal miners.”
The column references the NYT article last week that documented illegal airstrips in the Amazon and the Brazilian government’s failure to stop their construction. It also highlighted the military’s unwillingness to deploy resources, leaving the task to understaffed and underfunded civilian agencies.
Vanessa Barbara published a fantastic op-ed this week on the many reasons that Bolsonaro may face criminal charges and prison time. Criminal negligence in his pandemic response, active manipulation of social media, and generic corruption are just three of the potential investigative threads.
One thing I’ll add to her list of concerns is the fact Lula spent over a year in prison in what he and many of his supporters view as a politicized prosecution by his opponents. Whether or not Lula is the sort of person who would try to get revenge by doing the same, Bolsonaro likely fears that Lula is going to target him for prosecution.
Of course, Bolsonaro’s likely coming attempt to overturn the election (in spite of his claim yesterday that he is not planning a coup) and claim of fraud will further polarize society, with opponents demanding Bolsonaro’s arrest and supporters decrying any attempt to target the former president.
One cost of Bolsonaro’s controversies is that it is largely giving Lula a free pass. Lula’s past corruption allegations, foreign policy missteps and poor environmental record are all water under the bridge because Bolsonaro is that much worse. For example, AP published an analysis of the environmental record of both Lula and Bolsonaro. Given how atrocious the current Brazilian president’s stances are, it’s easy to forget that Lula wasn’t much of an environmentalist during his term in office. The issue has risen in stature both domestically and internationally, and he’s promising much bolder action now than he did when he previously held the presidency.
Lula has successfully fended off potential challenges from the left and put forward a moderate unity coalition that has—environmental issues aside—made an effort to not promise any sweeping change or “radical” agenda (as much as Bolsonaro tries to paint that picture). Lula, like Biden, believes he can win simply by being the rational candidate fending off someone who threatens democracy and civility in the country. However, that isn’t much of a mandate to govern.
Note: Leading up to the Brazilian elections, Hxagon will offer additional free coverage, as well as some paid reports. The free stuff will be free, obviously. But for corporate clients who have the budget and interest in paying for more in-depth coverage about Brazil, we would like to hear from you and schedule a call as we structure the research and reports we hope to deliver in the coming months. Please respond to this newsletter or email info@hxagon.com and we can discuss.