Brazil - A likely failed coup attempt is coming

The most likely scenario in Brazil is that Bolsonaro is going to lose, attempt an insurrection/coup and fail. Brazilian democracy will hold, but it’ll be ugly.

Jordi Amaral contributed research and drafting assistance to today’s newsletter.

Among the top questions I’ve received in recent months: will Bolsonaro attempt a coup if/when he loses the election later this year?

I’m not particularly worried about a successful coup in Brazil. Brazil’s democratic institutions remain strong and should hold up even under pr…