Bolivia - President-elect Rodrigo Paz
Bolivia's new president will get a very positive political honeymoon for the next several months. Then the troubles begin.
Rodrigo Paz won about 55% of the vote in the second round and is now Bolivia’s president-elect. The polls were wrong, and those of us who doubted the polls were correct. Tuto Quiroga quickly conceded.
Coverage: AP, Americas Quarterly, The Observer
Welcome to the honeymoon. For the next six months or so, Bolivia is going to look great. Paz is going to have a large majority coalition in the Congress working to pass pro-market reforms. There will be protests, but they’ll be limited and contained. The public is likely to give the new president some space, hoping for the best possible outcome. US-Bolivia relations will improve. Bolivia’s neighbors - Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, and even Chile - will be remarkably supportive of the new government. The positive glow will reflect back on the country and may even temporarily ease fuel shortages and slow the currency crisis.
And then that probably all breaks down. The honeymoon, whether it lasts 4, 6, or 12 months, will hit the reality of Bolivia’s financial situation.
Here is how I ended my World Politics Review column a few weeks ago:
Even if the presidential sash is handed over to Paz or Quiroga in early November, the real test will be whether the winner of the second round can govern effectively in 2026 and beyond. The opposition coalition that ousted MAS may fracture once they don’t have their antipathy of Morales to unite them anymore. The austerity measures that the current economic crisis demands will be politically controversial. The population is voting for change, but their votes are not a mandate for the chainsaw austerity measures imposed by President Javier Milei in neighboring Argentina. If that is what the new Bolivian government delivers, it may create the political pressure cooker of a weak left in Congress but a strong left reemerging on the streets to protest unpopular measures. If the economy remains in crisis, citizens well beyond the MAS base may join them.
The most chilling warning about the challenges of the coming years comes from Edman Lara, the vice-presidential running mate of Rodrigo Paz. Lara is a former police officer who denounced corruption within the police in 2023 and spent time in prison due to his accusation. Across the campaign, Lara has demonstrated a populist and authoritarian streak while running on strong anti-corruption credentials. Asked about how he thought the next government should manage corruption, Lara said, “I’m the guarantee. If Rodrigo Paz goes astray, I’ll set him straight. … If he refuses, other measures will have to be taken.” Latin America has seen plenty of splits between presidents and vice presidents over recent decades that have resulted in complicated governance. If a vice-presidential candidate is threatening to toss out his presidential running mate before the election is even won, it’s surely going to be rough term to come.
My view on that hasn’t changed. The structural crisis doesn’t care who is president. Paz will face the same currency and fuel math, the same street, and many of the same political limits that undid his predecessor. His VP is a real wildcard worth watching.
Imagine four scenarios for early 2027:
A) The optimistic scenario is that Bolivia’s economy improves dramatically thanks to a smart restructuring plan and a regional/global macro environment that helps it prosper. Paz is popular as economic reforms consolidate.
B) The middle ground scenario is that Paz is below 50% approval and facing mounting pressure from the street as the country still struggles economically. His coalition in Congress is barely holding.
C) The realistic pessimistic scenario is that Paz is wildly unpopular a year into his term due to economic problems. The Paz coalition fractures as he feuds with everyone else in the opposition. The MAS gets over its disunity, and investors flee as it becomes clear that the former ruling party will return to power in a few years.
D) Awful Chaos.
B is my most likely scenario, with C being more likely than A if I have to pick which direction I’m more likely to be wrong in.
I want Bolivia to improve. I hope I’m wrong and Paz has an amazingly successful term in office. But the odds are stacked against him once the initial market euphoria of democratically transitioning away from the MAS wears off.
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