Bolivia - Coup Attempt
Not a particularly well-organized or managed coup attempt, but one that adds to the challenges of a country already facing instability.
President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales have been at odds for months. Morales wants to run for president again in 2025. Arce, as president, feels he has a right to run for reelection and doesn't want to step aside for Morales. The two men disagree over economic policy, legislative coalitions, judicial elections and a host of other issues. Morales is using his influence in the legislature and his ability to mobilize supporters on the streets to place significant economic pressure on Arce. Articles earlier this month from AP and World Politics Review do a good job outlining the current issues in the country and explaining the tensions that existed before yesterday’s coup attempt.
Last week, General Juan Jose Zúñiga, the commander of Bolivia's armed forces, said Morales should not be allowed to run again and that that military would stop Morales if he were to attempt to become president again in 2025.
Arce fired Zúñiga for his comments.
Let's pause and note just how awesome Arce's firing of this general is. Military commanders probably should not comment on politics and definitely should not threaten military force to interfere in the democratic process of choosing the next president. In Venezuela right now, the entire military command is being used to support the reelection of Maduro and attack his opponents. But even in democratic countries, there have been far too many presidents in recent years who have leaned on their military commanders to appear as they have dealt with tense political situations. Arce not only did the right thing in firing his top military leader for comments made about his current leading political opponent, he set a model for how things should be done.
Zúñiga didn't like being fired. So he gathered some units and equipment, stormed the main plaza, broke into the presidential palace, confronted the president. The former general was clearly hoping the military and the public would side with him. They didn't. Arce held a press conference where he named new military commanders and the first thing the new commanders did was order the military to back down. Everyone backed down. Counter-protesters retook the square. Zúñiga was detained. The public rejoiced.
As he was arrested, Zúñiga insinuated it was a fake coup. He said that Arce planned out the event as a way to boost his own popularity. I don't think anything about this coup attempt was fake. Those comments are more likely to be Zúñiga attempting to save face for planning such a pathetic and terribly organized coup attempt. But with those comments, the former general planted a seed of doubt into the minds of Bolivians about the events of yesterday that will likely come back to haunt Arce in the future.
So after a few hours of drama, Bolivia is able to exit its coup attempt crisis and return back to its longer term and slower burning crisis of governance and economics that has defined recent years.
Arce will gain a brief boost of popularity, but without economic gains or a political alliance to pass new reforms, it won't last. Even though the president did the right thing and managed the entire coup attempt quite well, the fact it occurred will hang as another black mark on Bolivia's reputation as a politically unstable country. The Arce-Morales fight will return in full. Arce's centrist and rightwing opposition, which backed Arce during this coup attempt, will also turn on the president again quite swiftly. This is far from the last controversy leading up to the 2025 election.
I’ll have more comments about the regional response next Monday in World Politics Review.