Argentina - Milei's reforms stall
The president needs to check his ego to build a working congressional coalition.
President Javier Milei's economic reform bill was sent back to committee after it lacked approval in the Congress. The bill, already moderated from Milei's original version, was ultimately blocked due to disputes over how the states receive federal money. Milei could take this two ways. He could see this as an opportunity for negotiations and work to win over a majority coalition with some quiet concessions. Or he could go to war with his political opponents and burn all the bridges.
If you know anything about Milei's personality, you know which path he took. He called his opponents in the legislature as well as most of the country's governors traitors. He also threatened to hold a non-binding referendum to demonstrate popular support for his agenda.
His problem is that the bill may not have the popular support he thinks it does. The polling I've seen is mixed and probably indicates a plurality in favor right this moment, but that's generally due to a) the fact the details of the bill are still in flux and b) the question about economic reforms is connected with Milei's popularity and he's still in the first 100 days of his term.
Milei won the presidency because people were voting against the incumbent party and politicians in general, not because a majority thought Milei’s economic ideas were great. In fact, if you poll Milei’s specific economic (or social!) proposals, they have never been particularly popular among the public.
The Argentine population wants a better economy. It may be willing to go through some painful adjustments to get to a better economy. Milei has an opportunity during his honeymoon period while he's above 50% approval to use his political capital to pass a tough agenda and implement it. But holding a national vote on austerity measures is a giant gamble and one Milei is more likely than not to lose. Milei could probably win a generic referendum that trashes his political opponents and supports "reforms" in a general sense. But put any specifics on that ballot about subsidy cuts, privatizations, dollarization, or higher taxes, and the levels of support are going to crash.
If Milei goes through with the referendum and loses, he's a lame duck just months into his first year in office. That's where political stability becomes much more difficult.
I'm hopeful the president's advisors walk him back from this path and get him back into negotiations with the Congress. He could still have a successful first year, but it's going to take negotiating with the political caste that he hates so much, not a permanent election campaign against them while the country's economy remains so bleak.