Argentina 2027 Election Scenarios - October 2025
Milei won the midterms. Can he win reelection?
My article on the Argentina midterm election is available at this gift link for World Politics Review. Go read it.
With the midterm election over, let’s jump to the question of 2027. What are the odds of Milei’s reelection? Before I can figure that out, I need to think through the scenarios. The key factors for Milei’s potential reelection, in descending order, are:
Argentina’s economy
Argentina’s economy
Milei’s corruption scandals and behavior
The Peronists’ cohesion and reputation
Milei’s coalition
Given that the top two most important factors are Argentina’s economy, I built a 3x2 matrix that considers three potential futures for Argentina’s economy and assesses a scenario in which Milei is reelected or not in each.
Here is the text on each scenario.
Scenario 1: Collapse and Backlash
A peso crash triggers political chaos, mass protests, and potential default. The Peronists reunify - perhaps under Axel Kicillof or Máximo Kirchner - and campaign on restoring social programs. Milei’s approval collapses below 20%. The Peronists win outright in the first round. Post-Milei Argentina swings sharply back toward state control. The IMF is forced to negotiate from a position of weakness, private investors flee, and China reasserts influence.
Scenario 2: Stagnation
Inflation is stuck around 50%, real wages eroded, but the crash never comes as a few sectors (mining and agriculture) keep everything just barely held together. Milei’s style and low approval alienate his moderate allies, leaving him struggling in the Congress yet again. Corruption scandals continue to drain his credibility. The right splinters between Milei loyalists and a revived PRO. This allows the Peronists to pivot toward the center, promising “normalcy” and pragmatic stabilization, even as Kicillof pulls strings in the background.
Scenario 3: Conservative Continuity
Ironically, a booming economy erodes Milei’s anti-system message even as corruption scandals take away his personal appeal. Middle-class voters want stability without chaos. A more disciplined successor - perhaps Patricia Bullrich or a Milei protégé backed by business elites - takes the mantle. Milei himself is seen as too erratic to continue. The right keeps power, but the presidency shifts to a calmer, institutional conservative.
Scenario 4: The Populist Pivot
Even amid economic collapse - spiraling inflation, IMF rupture, capital flight - Milei manages to hold on to power. He doubles down on anti-elite rhetoric and successfully blames Congress, unions, and “the casta.” The opposition is fragmented between Peronists, moderates, and internal dissidents from the PRO. Turnout drops, and Milei ekes out re-election with 35–40% in a polarized runoff, as accusations of illicit campaigning and dirty tricks abound. Victory is less an endorsement of policy success than a rejection of the divided alternatives, but it somehow keeps Milei in power.
Scenario 5: Resilient and Patient Voters
Inflation is stuck around 50%, real wages eroded, but the crash never comes as a few sectors (mining and agriculture) keep everything just barely held together. Milei argues his reforms “stopped the bleeding.” The middle class grudgingly credits him for discipline, markets stay calm, and dollarization talk fades. Anti-system voters remain with him while moderate conservatives lack a compelling challenger. Milei wins a narrow but legitimate re-election built on low expectations and political exhaustion.
Scenario 6: The Market Messiah
Structural reforms, privatizations, and foreign inflows finally take hold. Inflation drops into single digits; reserves recover; Argentina posts 7% growth. Milei rides the economic boom narrative of vindication. He builds a pro-market coalition of voters including some poor disaffected Peronists who have seen their personal situation improve. Milei wins comfortably with 55–60%, consolidating a new libertarian-conservative bloc that outlasts him.
Some of these are more likely than others, with Scenario 4 being almost certainly the least likely of the group. Working off these scenarios, I can start to think through the odds. Obviously, how likely it is that Argentina’s economy booms, stagnates or crashes will play a big role in which of these scenarios plays out. There are also some wildcards, including external shocks, possible dollarization, and just utter chaos that could disrupt all of these scenarios.
Comments are open.