A map of how Latin American leaders respond to Trump - September 2025

My analysis is provided in both chart and map form for you to disagree with!

I published an initial version of the chart below in February, right after Trump took office, and then updated it in April. It’s a thought exercise, building an imperfect framework to understand how leaders react to Trump and how their relationship changes over time. With UNGA and other recent news, it’s a good week to update it.

Four big moves last week

Milei cashes in. Argentina’s president has been in the populist-aligned camp since before the 2024 US election and spent considerable time courting Trump and his administration. Last week, he received a $20 billion swap line at a critical moment to halt a potential economic crash right before the midterm elections. We can all appreciate the irony of the Latin American president who inspired the Doge austerity chainsaw meme receiving some of the biggest offers of US government foreign assistance in a generation. A question this raises is who else will try to cash in on their relationship with Trump. Many other allied governments could use the help.

Lula hugs it out. With the pressure, threats and sanctions from the Trump administration building for weeks, Lula took a page out of Sheinbaum’s book and used their brief encounter at UNGA to open up a personal relationship with Trump. The two still have differences, it could all crash in a week or two, but it was a pragmatic and personal touch that demonstrates Lula trying to navigate his way through the tensions.

Maduro sends a letter. Venezuela’s dictator doesn’t want to be invaded by the US. He wants to sell oil. Maduro, also trying to build a personal touch, sent a letter to Trump and kept back channel negotiations open through Ric Grenell, even as he announced an emergency decree to prepare for a potential military attack. Maduro wants to be in the opportunistic rather than opposed box; Rubio wants to ensure Trump views Maduro as an opponent.

Petro goes to social media war. It’s funny to think of the different ways that Lula, Maduro, Mulino, Boric, Sheinbaum and others all attempt to carefully navigate the complicated politics of responding to Trump, while Colombia’s president rushes to argue with him. After losing his US visa due to an overly aggressive speech in New York, Petro’s leading advisors are now being encouraged to renounce their own US visas moving forward. Petro doesn’t care about diplomacy or pretending to build a relationship toward Trump. He is embracing the feud. Unlike Lula, he is closing off options for deescalation.

Three other variables

One thing I’ve recognized in updating this list is that in addition to the Technocrat/Populist divide and the Aligned/Opportunistic/Opposed status, there are three other variables to monitor.

Trump’s treatment of the country. In some cases, governments may want to be in one box but get pushed into others.

• Mulino would like to be a Trump ally, but the demands to control the Panama Canal have complicated it.

• Maduro would like to opportunistically negotiate with Trump, but the mini-armada off the coast puts some stress on that.

• Lula would like to pick and choose his battles, but the sanctions and threats against Brazil’s financial system have complicated that.

• There is a world in which Nicaragua’s Ortega is in full conflict with Trump, but the US has barely given Ortega a second thought, allowing him to accept deportations and otherwise fly under the radar.

US leverage. Countries that have significant remittances, trade, and security assistance from the United States have greater constraints. Geographic distance also matters.

Domestic politics. This has mattered less up until now, but moving into the coming three years, there may be places where Trump’s unpopularity means leaders can gain some domestic political capital by being more Petro-like in their attitudes. Alternatively - and this is underappreciated in the media - many Latin American electorates want to maintain a somewhat positive relationship with the United States and may not approve of their leaders picking fights with the US. This could play to Trump’s advantage.

Readers like maps

Finally, I made a map with a slightly different framework for understanding these relationships.

Comments are open so people can tell me what I got wrong on the chart and the map. Thanks for reading!