A failed Colombian coup plot and other US policy stories in LatAm - 30 June 2025

Former Foreign Minister Leyva tried to convince Trump and Rubio to overthrow Petro. Rubio didn't take the bait.

I write about US policy in Latin America every Monday. In today’s newsletter:

1. The Leyva coup plot (no paywall)

2. Potential decertification of Colombia

3. US sanctions on Mexican banks

4. Sheinbaum vs SpaceX

5. Iran implications for Venezuela

6. Piling on the Bukele cooperation with MS-13 narrative

Also, while I don’t touch on it in today’s newsletter, here is a link to this week’s WPR column where I recommend the US provide full support to Costa Rica’s investigation of the cross-border assassination of Nicaraguan exiles by the Ortega regime.

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Spain’s El Pais published a bombshell report over the weekend based on audio recordings demonstrating that Colombia’s former Foreign Minister Alvaro Leyva sought US support to remove President Gustavo Petro from office and replace him with Vice President Francia Marquez. Leyva allegedly approached Secretary of State Rubio and several Republican members of Congress, believing US support for the coup attempt would be critical to its success.

The timeline of the plot coincides with Leyva publishing a public letter on social media denouncing Petro’s alcohol and drug abuse, as well as current Foreign Minister Sarabia’s coverup of the president’s personal addiction problems. Leyva appears to believe that the president is unfit for office and a threat to the country as it enters the election campaign next year.

There is no indication that the Trump administration agreed with Leyva or provided any support to his plot.

At least part of Leyva’s plot somehow involved an agreement with the ELN and Clan del Golfo (though the details on this are murky). He suggested at one point that he had spoken with representatives of AGC. Any cooperation with the criminal/terrorist organizations would almost certainly push away support for other sectors as well as the US. It’s not clear why Leyva believed it to be necessary or a good idea.

Francia Marquez denied being involved with Leyva’s plot for her to ascend to the presidency. Given the long-standing tensions between Petro and his vice president, this is likely to worsen their relationship.

Leyva also spoke with representatives of Colombia’s rightwing politics, including Senator Miguel Uribe, who was recently the target of an assassination plot. While it currently seems coincidental that Leyva spoke with Uribe about the coup plot, and then the senator was later shot, that will be a detail that will draw attention in the drama that is to come. Former President Uribe denounced the plot and said the rightwing politicians mentioned by Leyva were unconnected with the “golpista” plot.

In recent weeks, Petro’s government has denounced potential coup plots and suggested that they are being investigated and may be prosecuted. Leyva fled to Spain. This demonstrates that Petro’s team was aware of the issue before the recordings were leaked in El Pais.

Last year, I published a map mocking Petro for constantly claiming there were coup plots against him. Well, it turns out that as of April, there was a real one. It’s more of a broken clock being right twice per day than proof that Petro’s rhetoric about coups is justified. Still, Colombia’s president thrives on this sort of anti-imperialist conspiracy, and he’s going to milk it for all its worth.

It’s certainly positive that the Trump administration did not back a coup d’etat against Gustavo Petro. However, all is not well in terms of Trump-Petro or Rubio-Petro relations.