Ecuador post-referendum points - April 2024
A president with a mandate for mano dura will face off against protesters opposed to economic austerity. Noboa's response will define his term.
Two weeks ago I wrote:
I think a likely scenario (but certainly not the only potential outcome) is one in which most or all of the security measures pass but the president loses on the arbitration clause and perhaps one other question. That mixed result would give Noboa space to work with in terms of security but would also signal trouble spots ahead on his economic agenda that his opponents could successfully attack.
That's the scenario that Ecuador is in. I’ll score that prediction as a win. Noboa won the security-focused questions, in most cases by significant margins, but lost out on the international arbitration question as well as a labor reform question that would have legalized hourly work contracts.
Voters are discerning. The easiest thing for a voter to do in this referendum would be to simply go and vote straight yes or no depending on how they feel about the president and his general policy agenda. That's not what voters did. At least 40% of voters split their ballots between yes and no votes, suggesting they were thinking about the referendum questions. It's thrown a bit of a curveball into Ecuadoran politics because it means all the political parties now must recognize voters aren't simply voting for specific politicians or parties. The parties need to have more nuanced positions and be open to dissent within their ranks. The party that demands full loyalty on every issue loses the median voter.
Noboa has his security mandate. The president has greater legal authority and political capital to use the military in a mano dura approach against the violent criminal groups. Violence, including attacks against political targets, appears to be on the upswing again, though the situation remains better than it was in January. Voters want the president to act and will support hardline policies that attack the criminals.
The economic clash is coming. It's practically an open secret at this point that an IMF deal is on the way and that Noboa plans various subsidy cuts later this year. A large portion of the population is going to take that poorly. Protests are likely. Former President Correa and his party (who understand how the political winds are blowing) have promised to back the president on security but oppose his other initiatives, meaning the president will face a huge political hurdle in the Congress.
Pragmatism vs anger. This sets up a potentially dangerous moment in the coming months in which a president with the authority and mandate to use heavy military and police force against gangs will face off against political movements and protesters that oppose his economic agenda. How Noboa responds will be the defining moment of his term.
The president is at war (legally and literally) against gangs that are also political actors in the country. The population strongly supports that war, but is not as supportive of the president's economic agenda. My hope is that Noboa has the ability to balance this, responding pragmatically to the protests while maintaining the war against the gangs. My fear is that Noboa, like so many other leaders, begins to blur the lines between his political opponents and military opponents in a way that causes violence and polarizes the population. For all the comparisons to Bukele, Noboa has been more careful so far. But the political, economic and security pressures are likely to increase and the temptation will be there.
The wildcard is the weather. Back in January, right after the president declared war on the gangs, violence suddenly decreased in Guayaquil. But the reason was not the military but rather that the city had massive flooding. Then, a week before the referendum, there were major electricity cuts in the country as a drought impacted hydroelectric power, likely harming the votes on the economic-related referendum questions. The weather has been a wildcard across Latin American politics this year (I'll have more to say on that soon) and Ecuador is probably the biggest example of that. El Niño gets a vote on how the political clash plays out later this year.